Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
- ▸Attractively valued
OLLI · Why this verdict
Why Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ollie's Bargain Outlet holds a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a PEG ratio of 0.85, and analysts projecting 43% upside, with the discount retail model showing 3-of-4 earnings beats, though the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 7% per 30 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ollie's achieves a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting broad strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics, which is a strong signal of financial health and consistent execution in the discount retail sector. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming sustained operational and balance sheet discipline. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect Piotroski score can be a backward-looking indicator and may not capture the forward-looking risk of an inventory-driven business where deal sourcing quality determines profitability. | ||
With a PEG ratio of 0.85 and a forward P/E of 16.6x, Ollie's is priced at a discount to its expected earnings growth rate, and analysts project 43% upside to consensus targets, suggesting the current downtrend has created a value opportunity in a quality discount retailer. Valuation breakdown | Stock price rises above $100 within 12 months as earnings growth and analyst target convergence close the valuation gap. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG below 1.0 for a discount retailer can be misleading if the earnings growth rate is estimated during a period of consumer trade-down tailwinds that may not sustain as economic conditions normalize. | ||
Ollie's beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.2%, and the discount retail model benefits from consumer trade-down behavior in uncertain economic environments, which has been a consistent source of outperformance. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the off-price retail channel benefits from continued consumer value-seeking behavior. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the last 4 quarters was a miss of -1.1%, and the average surprise of 3.2% is modest, suggesting the beat pattern is not driven by large structural tailwinds but rather by incremental execution. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 7.0% per 30 days and is near its 52-week low, creating near-term price risk even as the underlying business fundamentals remain solid. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average within 6 months as the technical downtrend exhausts and fundamental value attracts buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovery setups in confirmed downtrends can produce significant head-fakes, and the technical weakness may be prescient if the consumer discount retail cycle is turning as broader economic conditions improve. | ||
Ollie's achieves a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting broad strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics, which is a strong signal of financial health and consistent execution in the discount retail sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming sustained operational and balance sheet discipline.
CounterA perfect Piotroski score can be a backward-looking indicator and may not capture the forward-looking risk of an inventory-driven business where deal sourcing quality determines profitability.
With a PEG ratio of 0.85 and a forward P/E of 16.6x, Ollie's is priced at a discount to its expected earnings growth rate, and analysts project 43% upside to consensus targets, suggesting the current downtrend has created a value opportunity in a quality discount retailer.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price rises above $100 within 12 months as earnings growth and analyst target convergence close the valuation gap.
CounterA PEG below 1.0 for a discount retailer can be misleading if the earnings growth rate is estimated during a period of consumer trade-down tailwinds that may not sustain as economic conditions normalize.
Ollie's beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.2%, and the discount retail model benefits from consumer trade-down behavior in uncertain economic environments, which has been a consistent source of outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the off-price retail channel benefits from continued consumer value-seeking behavior.
CounterOne of the last 4 quarters was a miss of -1.1%, and the average surprise of 3.2% is modest, suggesting the beat pattern is not driven by large structural tailwinds but rather by incremental execution.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 7.0% per 30 days and is near its 52-week low, creating near-term price risk even as the underlying business fundamentals remain solid.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average within 6 months as the technical downtrend exhausts and fundamental value attracts buyers.
CounterRecovery setups in confirmed downtrends can produce significant head-fakes, and the technical weakness may be prescient if the consumer discount retail cycle is turning as broader economic conditions improve.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 54% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,149,218 (0.026% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.82
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.34
Upside
+47.4%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Momentum at 2.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 7.5, and Growth at 6.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Insider at 3.8, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Ollie's achieves a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting broad strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics, which is a strong signal of financial health and consistent execution in the discount retail sector.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any assessed period, signaling deterioration in financial health metrics.
- P2With a PEG ratio of 0.85 and a forward P/E of 16.6x, Ollie's is priced at a discount to its expected earnings growth rate, and analysts project 43% upside to consensus targets, suggesting the current downtrend has created a value opportunity in a quality discount retailer.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $90, reducing projected upside to less than 6% from current price levels.
- P3Ollie's beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.2%, and the discount retail model benefits from consumer trade-down behavior in uncertain economic environments, which has been a consistent source of outperformance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, breaking the established beat pattern.
- P4The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 7.0% per 30 days and is near its 52-week low, creating near-term price risk even as the underlying business fundamentals remain solid.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope steepens to more than -10% per 30-day period, indicating the downtrend is accelerating rather than stabilizing.