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OFG Bancorp (OFG) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

OFG Bancorp is a Puerto Rico-headquartered financial holding company operating Oriental Bank with 42 branches in Puerto Rico and 2 in the U.S. Virgin Islands, providing commercial, consumer, auto, and mortgage lending plus wealth management. As of December 31, 2025, it had 2,185... Read more

$44.56+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#71 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.91%(5y avg 2.31%)Payout25.83%sustainable
Stop $42.56Target $45.91(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$47.75+7.2%4 analysts
$45.91our TP
$44.56price
$47.75mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — OFG Bancorp

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.9% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.2
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.6%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth6.9%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.91%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPuerto Rico
    10-K Item 1A: 'Most of our business is conducted in Puerto Rico, where economic and government fiscal and liquidity challenges have adversely impacted and may continue to adversely impact us.'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioPuerto Rico government deposits16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we have a significant amount of collateralized deposits from the Puerto Rico government, its instrumentalities and municipalities ($1.676 billion, or approximately 16.3% of our total deposits, as of December 31, 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.62Resistance $46.85

Price Targets

$43
$46
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $45.91 (+3.0%), stop $42.56 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.91 (+3.0% upside). Target $45.91 (+3.0%), stop $42.56 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $42.56.

What are the risks of investing in OFG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away).

Is OFG overvalued or undervalued?

OFG Bancorp trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OFG?

8 analysts cover OFG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $48.

What does OFG Bancorp do?OFG Bancorp is a Puerto Rico-headquartered financial holding company operating Oriental Bank with 42 branches in Puerto...

OFG Bancorp is a Puerto Rico-headquartered financial holding company operating Oriental Bank with 42 branches in Puerto Rico and 2 in the U.S. Virgin Islands, providing commercial, consumer, auto, and mortgage lending plus wealth management. As of December 31, 2025, it had 2,185 employees and its business is primarily concentrated in Puerto Rico and USVI.

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