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Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $42.92. BUY gates pass at $47.26, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (2.5% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $42.92 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and interest-bearing... Read more

$47.26+9.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#77 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $42.92(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $40.69Target $47.16(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$52.00+10.0%5 analysts
$47.16our TP
$47.26price
$52.00mean
$54

Wait for pullback to $42.92. BUY gates pass at $47.26, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (2.5% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $42.92 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE6.6%
Rev Growth9.3%
Beta0.68
Dividend2.13%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$35-25.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
4.1
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.03Resistance $48.12

Price Targets

$41
$43
$47
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $42.92. BUY gates pass at $47.26, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (2.5% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $42.92 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $47.16 (-0.2%), stop $40.69 (−16.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.16 (+9.9% upside). Target $47.16 (-0.2%), stop $40.69 (−16.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $40.69.

What are the risks of investing in OBK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away).

Is OBK overvalued or undervalued?

Origin Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OBK?

9 analysts cover OBK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Origin Bancorp, Inc. do?Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to...

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, and residential mortgage loans. The company offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, business credit cards, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit boxes, automatic account transfers, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions; and mobile and online banking, treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, commercial and consumer loans, and insurance services. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

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