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Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away).

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and... Read more

$46.27+1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#99 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.16%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout23.26%sustainable
Stop $44.07Target $46.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$52.00+12.4%5 analysts
$46.90our TP
$46.27price
$52.00mean
$54

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Origin Bancorp, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.8% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.9
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE6.6%
Rev Growth9.3%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.16%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
3.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.10Resistance $47.86

Price Targets

$44
$47
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $46.90 (+1.4%), stop $44.07 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.90 (+1.4% upside). Target $46.90 (+1.4%), stop $44.07 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $44.07.

What are the risks of investing in OBK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is OBK overvalued or undervalued?

Origin Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OBK?

9 analysts cover OBK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Origin Bancorp, Inc. do?Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to...

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, and residential mortgage loans. The company offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, business credit cards, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit boxes, automatic account transfers, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions; and mobile and online banking, treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, commercial and consumer loans, and insurance services. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

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