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Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Northwest Bancshares is a community bank holding company operating Northwest Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered savings bank with 161 locations across PA, western NY, northeastern OH, and IN. Revenue comes primarily from net interest income on residential mortgages, commercial real... Read more

$13.78+1.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#47 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $13.22Target $13.97(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$14.57+5.7%7 analysts
$13.97our TP
$13.78price
$14.57mean
$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: residential and commercial real estate lending
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn21.4%
ROE7.5%
Rev Growth15.1%
Beta0.63
Dividend5.82%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$10-27.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicPennsylvania39%
    10-K Item 1A: 'At December 31, 2025, 39% of our loan portfolio was secured by properties located in Pennsylvania'
  • HIGHTenantresidential and commercial real estate lending
    10-K Item 1A: 'we have a concentration in residential and commercial real estate lending, as such loans represent a combined 342% of total bank capital as of December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.70Resistance $14.26

Price Targets

$13
$14
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $13.97 (+1.4%), stop $13.22 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.97 (+1.4% upside). Target $13.97 (+1.4%), stop $13.22 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $13.22.

What are the risks of investing in NWBI?

Concentration risk — Tenant: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away).

Is NWBI overvalued or undervalued?

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NWBI?

14 analysts cover NWBI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Northwest Bancshares, Inc. do?Northwest Bancshares is a community bank holding company operating Northwest Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered savings...

Northwest Bancshares is a community bank holding company operating Northwest Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered savings bank with 161 locations across PA, western NY, northeastern OH, and IN. Revenue comes primarily from net interest income on residential mortgages, commercial real estate, and commercial business loans funded by retail deposits.

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