Northwest Bancshares beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, and shows strong momentum with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, but loan portfolio concentration in real estate lending and an unsafe dividend yield flag material risks.
Thesis pillars
- Real Estate Loan Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Peg→Stable
- Earnings Beat And Growth Profile↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Northwest Bancshares operates Northwest Bank, a Pennsylvania savings bank founded in 1896 with 161 community offices across Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and Indiana. The bank earns net interest income on residential, commercial real estate, commercial, and consumer loans, with... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Northwest Bancshares, Inc.
About Northwest Bancshares, Inc.
Northwest Bancshares operates Northwest Bank, a community institution founded in 1896 with 161 banking locations across Pennsylvania (102 offices), western New York (28), northeastern Ohio (11), and Indiana (20) at December 31, 2025. The loan portfolio at year-end included $3.3 billion in commercial real estate (26% of gross loans), $2.6 billion in commercial loans (20%), and $2.5 billion in consumer loans (19%). In July 2025, the company completed the acquisition of Penns Woods Bancorp, adding $2.2 billion of total assets.
Northwest Bank earns net interest income on residential mortgage loans, commercial real estate, commercial business, and consumer installment loans across Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and Indiana. The bank funds itself through personal and business deposits, FHLB advances, and other borrowings; its investment policy directs purchases of FHLB, FNMA, FHLMC, and GNMA-issued debentures and mortgage-backed securities for liquidity and interest-rate management. Pennsylvania loans collateralized 39% of the loan portfolio at December 31, 2025, and New York collateralized 10%; Ohio and Indiana comprised the remainder. The 10-K discloses a concentration in residential and commercial real estate lending, with such loans representing 342% of total bank capital at year-end — a metric that triggers enhanced scrutiny under the FDIC's CRE Lending Guidance. The company is regulated by the Federal Reserve Board, the FDIC, the CFPB, the Department of Banking (Pennsylvania), and the SEC. Competition for deposits comes from banks, brokerage houses, and credit unions across the four-state market.
Show full overview
The four-state footprint presents divergent local economic dynamics. Ohio markets showed 19.5% year-over-year median household income growth at December 31, 2025, versus 5.3% in Indiana and 8.9% in Pennsylvania. Foreclosure rates in Indiana (one per 2,544 housing units) and Ohio (one per 2,736) exceeded the national average of one per 3,163 at September 30, 2025, which could weigh on collateral recovery rates if economic conditions deteriorate. Pennsylvania and western New York markets experienced population declines between 2020 and 2025, a structural demand headwind for residential mortgage originations.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Northwest Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Northwest Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS NWBI Maintained by DA Davidson -- Price Target Raised to $17.00 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Northwest Bancshares announces board chair transition - MSN — MSN neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: NWBI to Report Financial Results Post-market on April 27 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS Ahead of Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) Q3 Earnings: Get Ready With Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Can Northwest Bancshares (NASDAQ:NWBI) Earnings Justify a More Than 5% Dividend Yield? - kalkine.ca — kalkine.ca neutral
Generated 2026-10-28T11:28:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfolioresidential and commercial real estate lending10-K Item 1A: 'we have a concentration in residential and commercial real estate lending, as such loans represent a combined 342% of total bank capital as of December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans26%10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate loans totaled $3.3 billion, or 26% of gross loans'
- MEDIUMGeographicPennsylvania39%10-K Item 1A: '39% of our loan portfolio was secured by properties located in Pennsylvania'
- LOWGeographicNew York10%10-K Item 1A: '10% of our loan portfolio was secured by properties located in New York'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the 2026 Equity Incentive Plan and Discounted Stock Purchase Plan at the May 20, 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine compensatory arrangement approvals; no officer departures or appointments disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $14.29 reached (−6.4%), stop $14.69 (−3.9%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $14.29 reached (−6.4% from $15.27); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $14.29 reached (−6.4%), stop $14.69 (−3.9%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $14.69.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential and commercial real estate lending; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover NWBI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $16.
What does Northwest Bancshares, Inc. do?Northwest Bancshares operates Northwest Bank, a Pennsylvania savings bank founded in 1896 with 161 community offices...
Northwest Bancshares operates Northwest Bank, a Pennsylvania savings bank founded in 1896 with 161 community offices across Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and Indiana. The bank earns net interest income on residential, commercial real estate, commercial, and consumer loans, with commercial real estate at 26% and commercial loans at 20% of gross loans at December 31, 2025.