Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.05
NTNX · Why this verdict
Why Nutanix (NTNX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nutanix has strong free cash flow conversion at 229% of net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, but is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross hard block triggered, momentum at a very low 1.7, and a Supermicro supplier concentration risk, making the near-term risk profile unfavorable despite good fundamental scores.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nutanix relies on Supermicro as a key hardware supplier, creating a supplier concentration risk given the well-publicized accounting and operational challenges Supermicro has faced, which could disrupt Nutanix's hardware supply chain. Bear case | No supply disruption events related to Supermicro are reported over the next 12 months; ideally the company announces diversified hardware supply agreements. | →Stable |
| CounterNutanix's business model is increasingly software-defined, reducing its dependence on any single hardware supplier over time as customers move toward commodity hardware platforms. | ||
Nutanix converts earnings to free cash flow at 229% of net income and holds a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating the business is generating substantial real cash despite accounting complexities typical of software infrastructure companies. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income at software companies often reflects deferred revenue dynamics and stock-based compensation add-backs rather than permanent cash generation improvements. | ||
Nutanix has triggered a death cross hard block — the most severe momentum gate failure — with a momentum score of only 1.7 and the 200-day moving average declining at -6.3% per 30 days, signaling a confirmed and accelerating downtrend. Engine gate (failed) | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and moving average slope turns positive within 12 months before adding to any position. | →Stable |
| CounterThe death cross occurred with the stock near a 52-week low position of 1.9 on a 0-10 scale, which historically represents a point of maximum pessimism from which mean reversion can occur. | ||
Nutanix has beaten or met analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an impressive average positive surprise of 18.9%, and analyst sentiment scores 6.6 with a consensus that sees 3.9% near-term upside. Earnings | Beat rate remains at 3 out of 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10% over the next four reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.53 and thin upside margin of 3.9% to the analyst target suggest limited conviction from options market participants even as analysts express moderate optimism. | ||
Nutanix relies on Supermicro as a key hardware supplier, creating a supplier concentration risk given the well-publicized accounting and operational challenges Supermicro has faced, which could disrupt Nutanix's hardware supply chain.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No supply disruption events related to Supermicro are reported over the next 12 months; ideally the company announces diversified hardware supply agreements.
CounterNutanix's business model is increasingly software-defined, reducing its dependence on any single hardware supplier over time as customers move toward commodity hardware platforms.
Nutanix converts earnings to free cash flow at 229% of net income and holds a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating the business is generating substantial real cash despite accounting complexities typical of software infrastructure companies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income at software companies often reflects deferred revenue dynamics and stock-based compensation add-backs rather than permanent cash generation improvements.
Nutanix has triggered a death cross hard block — the most severe momentum gate failure — with a momentum score of only 1.7 and the 200-day moving average declining at -6.3% per 30 days, signaling a confirmed and accelerating downtrend.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and moving average slope turns positive within 12 months before adding to any position.
CounterThe death cross occurred with the stock near a 52-week low position of 1.9 on a 0-10 scale, which historically represents a point of maximum pessimism from which mean reversion can occur.
Nutanix has beaten or met analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an impressive average positive surprise of 18.9%, and analyst sentiment scores 6.6 with a consensus that sees 3.9% near-term upside.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate remains at 3 out of 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10% over the next four reporting periods.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.53 and thin upside margin of 3.9% to the analyst target suggest limited conviction from options market participants even as analysts express moderate optimism.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 229% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 16, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,666,778 (0.021% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.15
Upside
+9.7%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.15 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 6.8, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.4, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Nutanix converts earnings to free cash flow at 229% of net income and holds a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating the business is generating substantial real cash despite accounting complexities typical of software infrastructure companies.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Nutanix has triggered a death cross hard block — the most severe momentum gate failure — with a momentum score of only 1.7 and the 200-day moving average declining at -6.3% per 30 days, signaling a confirmed and accelerating downtrend.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains negative at more than -5% per 30 days for 2 consecutive months or price falls below $40.
- P3Nutanix relies on Supermicro as a key hardware supplier, creating a supplier concentration risk given the well-publicized accounting and operational challenges Supermicro has faced, which could disrupt Nutanix's hardware supply chain.
Trip ifA supply disruption linked to Supermicro causes revenue guidance to decline by more than 5% or delivery timelines to increase beyond 90 days.
- P4Nutanix has beaten or met analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an impressive average positive surprise of 18.9%, and analyst sentiment scores 6.6 with a consensus that sees 3.9% near-term upside.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters or average positive surprise declines below 5%.