Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
NOMD · Why this verdict
Why Nomad Foods (NOMD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nomad Foods is a packaged foods company trading at an exceptionally cheap forward P/E of 5.5x and PEG of 0.07, but its quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum threshold, revenue is declining 6%, and it sits in a confirmed long-term downtrend below its 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining at approximately 6% year-over-year, which in a packaged foods company signals either market share loss or volume declines in its frozen food categories that the company has not yet been able to arrest. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to at least 0% year-over-year in the next 2 quarterly reports, ending the decline trend. | →Stable |
| CounterSome revenue decline may reflect portfolio pruning of low-margin product lines that improves earnings quality even while top-line shrinks, and earnings growth of 10% supports this interpretation. | ||
Nomad Foods trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, implying that the market has heavily discounted the company's earnings power, possibly creating a value opportunity if the revenue decline can be stabilized. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 8x within 12 months as revenue stabilizes and earnings guidance holds. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuations in packaged foods companies with declining revenue and no competitive moat often reflect permanent multiple compression rather than a temporary market mispricing. | ||
With a quality score of 3.5 below the minimum investable threshold of 4.0 and no competitive moat, Nomad's business quality does not meet the standard required to justify holding the position even at a discounted valuation. Quality breakdown | The quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months through margin improvement or successful brand investments that rebuild pricing power. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 4.4, moderate operating margins, and decent free cash flow conversion at 7.9 suggest the business is not structurally impaired, just not yet strong enough by this framework's thresholds. | ||
Nomad is trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed declining slope of 6.9% per month, placing the stock in an established long-term downtrend with no technical confirmation of a reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and the moving average slope turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising with accumulation signals present, suggesting the downtrend may be in the early stages of bottoming even while the 200-day average remains below. | ||
Revenue is declining at approximately 6% year-over-year, which in a packaged foods company signals either market share loss or volume declines in its frozen food categories that the company has not yet been able to arrest.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to at least 0% year-over-year in the next 2 quarterly reports, ending the decline trend.
CounterSome revenue decline may reflect portfolio pruning of low-margin product lines that improves earnings quality even while top-line shrinks, and earnings growth of 10% supports this interpretation.
Nomad Foods trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, implying that the market has heavily discounted the company's earnings power, possibly creating a value opportunity if the revenue decline can be stabilized.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 8x within 12 months as revenue stabilizes and earnings guidance holds.
CounterCheap valuations in packaged foods companies with declining revenue and no competitive moat often reflect permanent multiple compression rather than a temporary market mispricing.
With a quality score of 3.5 below the minimum investable threshold of 4.0 and no competitive moat, Nomad's business quality does not meet the standard required to justify holding the position even at a discounted valuation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months through margin improvement or successful brand investments that rebuild pricing power.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 4.4, moderate operating margins, and decent free cash flow conversion at 7.9 suggest the business is not structurally impaired, just not yet strong enough by this framework's thresholds.
Nomad is trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed declining slope of 6.9% per month, placing the stock in an established long-term downtrend with no technical confirmation of a reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and the moving average slope turns positive.
CounterMACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising with accumulation signals present, suggesting the downtrend may be in the early stages of bottoming even while the 200-day average remains below.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $9,157,029 (0.615% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 638.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.61%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+2.9%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.6, Peer rank at 2.4, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Nomad Foods trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, implying that the market has heavily discounted the company's earnings power, possibly creating a value opportunity if the revenue decline can be stabilized.
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 4x within 12 months as earnings estimates are revised lower by more than 15%.
- P2With a quality score of 3.5 below the minimum investable threshold of 4.0 and no competitive moat, Nomad's business quality does not meet the standard required to justify holding the position even at a discounted valuation.
Trip ifQuality score remains below 4.0 for more than 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Revenue is declining at approximately 6% year-over-year, which in a packaged foods company signals either market share loss or volume declines in its frozen food categories that the company has not yet been able to arrest.
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 10% year-over-year in the next quarterly report.
- P4Nomad is trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed declining slope of 6.9% per month, placing the stock in an established long-term downtrend with no technical confirmation of a reversal.
Trip ifPrice drops below $8.50 while still in a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average.