Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3 |
| p ocf | 3.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 36.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
NMRK · Why this verdict
Why Newmark Group (NMRK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Newmark Group has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and 27% year-over-year revenue growth in commercial real estate services, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, weak momentum, and falling on-balance volume signal that near-term price recovery is not yet established.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew approximately 27% year-over-year, among the strongest in its real estate services peer group, reflecting share gains or market recovery in commercial real estate advisory and capital markets services. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterCommercial real estate services revenues are highly transaction-dependent and could fall sharply if deal activity slows due to higher interest rates or reduced lending availability. | ||
Newmark has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11.2%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations even in a challenging real estate environment. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprises above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate services earnings can be lumpy due to large deal closings, making a consistent beat streak potentially dependent on transaction timing rather than operational discipline. | ||
A confirmed death-cross pattern, where the short-term moving average has crossed below the long-term moving average, is a hard technical gate failure that historically signals sustained downward price pressure until momentum recovers. Engine gate (failed) | The death cross reverses with a golden cross within 6 months as MACD continues improving, restoring positive technical conditions. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is already improving and RSI at 58 shows the stock is recovering, suggesting the death cross may be a lagging signal in an early-stage price recovery. | ||
On-balance volume is declining, indicating that more volume is occurring on down days than up days, which reflects institutional distribution and suggests professional money is reducing exposure even as the price holds. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume reverses to rising trend within 3 months, confirming institutional accumulation rather than distribution. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume for smaller-cap real estate services companies can be distorted by low liquidity days, making the signal less reliable than for large-cap stocks. | ||
Revenue grew approximately 27% year-over-year, among the strongest in its real estate services peer group, reflecting share gains or market recovery in commercial real estate advisory and capital markets services.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterCommercial real estate services revenues are highly transaction-dependent and could fall sharply if deal activity slows due to higher interest rates or reduced lending availability.
Newmark has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11.2%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations even in a challenging real estate environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprises above 5%.
CounterReal estate services earnings can be lumpy due to large deal closings, making a consistent beat streak potentially dependent on transaction timing rather than operational discipline.
A confirmed death-cross pattern, where the short-term moving average has crossed below the long-term moving average, is a hard technical gate failure that historically signals sustained downward price pressure until momentum recovers.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death cross reverses with a golden cross within 6 months as MACD continues improving, restoring positive technical conditions.
CounterMACD is already improving and RSI at 58 shows the stock is recovering, suggesting the death cross may be a lagging signal in an early-stage price recovery.
On-balance volume is declining, indicating that more volume is occurring on down days than up days, which reflects institutional distribution and suggests professional money is reducing exposure even as the price holds.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume reverses to rising trend within 3 months, confirming institutional accumulation rather than distribution.
CounterOn-balance volume for smaller-cap real estate services companies can be distorted by low liquidity days, making the signal less reliable than for large-cap stocks.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸High IV: 105%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 160.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.10
Upside
+11.3%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.70>1.3, MCap $3.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.7; weakest: Technical at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Catalyst at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Momentum at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue grew approximately 27% year-over-year, among the strongest in its real estate services peer group, reflecting share gains or market recovery in commercial real estate advisory and capital markets services.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Newmark has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11.2%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations even in a challenging real estate environment.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3A confirmed death-cross pattern, where the short-term moving average has crossed below the long-term moving average, is a hard technical gate failure that historically signals sustained downward price pressure until momentum recovers.
Trip ifPrice drops below $13 before a golden cross is confirmed.
- P4On-balance volume is declining, indicating that more volume is occurring on down days than up days, which reflects institutional distribution and suggests professional money is reducing exposure even as the price holds.
Trip ifOn-balance volume remains in a declining trend for more than 3 consecutive months.