Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.78
- ▸Attractively valued
NEM · Why this verdict
Why Newmont (NEM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Newmont Corporation is a best-in-class gold miner with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, Rule of 40 score of 85, wide economic moat, 26% return on equity, 46% revenue growth, and a 4-quarter perfect earnings beat streak averaging 24.9% positive surprise — making it one of the highest-conviction quality-growth combinations in the materials sector — though concentrated gold exposure at 85% of revenue ties the thesis to commodity price direction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 85% of revenue derived from gold, Newmont's financial performance is substantially determined by a single commodity whose price is driven by macroeconomic factors including inflation expectations, real interest rates, and dollar strength — all outside management's control. Bear case | Gold price remains above $2,000 per ounce for the next 12 months, supporting the revenue and earnings base that underlies the current valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterGold concentration in a gold mining company is a feature, not a bug — diversification into lower-quality metals would dilute the margins and moat that make Newmont the highest-conviction play on gold. | ||
Analysts see 34% upside to the current price, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with 46% revenue growth, and the risk-reward ratio is 3.47 with 24% upside versus 7% downside — placing Newmont among the more attractively valued high-quality companies in the entire coverage universe. Sentiment breakdown | The stock closes at least 15% of the gap to analyst consensus price targets within 12 months as the quality and growth profile receives broader recognition. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.39 indicates that options traders are positioned more bearishly than the analyst community, suggesting hedgers see meaningful downside risk that consensus targets do not fully incorporate. | ||
Newmont scores 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, achieves a Rule of 40 of 85 — a rare elite threshold — maintains a 26% return on equity, and holds a wide economic moat, establishing it as a genuine compounder within the gold mining sector with durable operational advantages over peers. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 9.0 and Piotroski F-Score holds at 9 for the next 2 consecutive quarterly assessments. | →Stable |
| CounterGold mining returns are highly leveraged to the gold price; a sustained decline in the commodity price would compress ROE and margins regardless of the company's operational quality, making the high Piotroski score partly cyclical. | ||
Newmont has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 24.9%, including beats of 33.5%, 24.3%, 18.8%, and 22.9% — indicating conservative guidance, strong operational execution, and management credibility. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, sustaining the track record. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge positive earnings surprises in gold mining often reflect unexpected gold price appreciation rather than operational outperformance; if the gold price stabilizes, the surprise magnitude may revert to a smaller range. | ||
With 85% of revenue derived from gold, Newmont's financial performance is substantially determined by a single commodity whose price is driven by macroeconomic factors including inflation expectations, real interest rates, and dollar strength — all outside management's control.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Gold price remains above $2,000 per ounce for the next 12 months, supporting the revenue and earnings base that underlies the current valuation.
CounterGold concentration in a gold mining company is a feature, not a bug — diversification into lower-quality metals would dilute the margins and moat that make Newmont the highest-conviction play on gold.
Analysts see 34% upside to the current price, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with 46% revenue growth, and the risk-reward ratio is 3.47 with 24% upside versus 7% downside — placing Newmont among the more attractively valued high-quality companies in the entire coverage universe.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least 15% of the gap to analyst consensus price targets within 12 months as the quality and growth profile receives broader recognition.
CounterAn elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.39 indicates that options traders are positioned more bearishly than the analyst community, suggesting hedgers see meaningful downside risk that consensus targets do not fully incorporate.
Newmont scores 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, achieves a Rule of 40 of 85 — a rare elite threshold — maintains a 26% return on equity, and holds a wide economic moat, establishing it as a genuine compounder within the gold mining sector with durable operational advantages over peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 9.0 and Piotroski F-Score holds at 9 for the next 2 consecutive quarterly assessments.
CounterGold mining returns are highly leveraged to the gold price; a sustained decline in the commodity price would compress ROE and margins regardless of the company's operational quality, making the high Piotroski score partly cyclical.
Newmont has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 24.9%, including beats of 33.5%, 24.3%, 18.8%, and 22.9% — indicating conservative guidance, strong operational execution, and management credibility.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, sustaining the track record.
CounterLarge positive earnings surprises in gold mining often reflect unexpected gold price appreciation rather than operational outperformance; if the gold price stabilizes, the surprise magnitude may revert to a smaller range.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.6 |
| ROA | 9.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 46% YoY
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $3,120,276 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 106.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.10
Upside
+34.1%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (9.3) with weak momentum (2.3)
SuitabilityCONSERVATIVE — Beta 0.46<0.8, Div 106.0%, Q=9.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.3<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.10.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 9.3, and Value at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Peer rank at 2.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.10 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Newmont scores 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, achieves a Rule of 40 of 85 — a rare elite threshold — maintains a 26% return on equity, and holds a wide economic moat, establishing it as a genuine compounder within the gold mining sector with durable operational advantages over peers.
Trip ifQuality score falls below 8.5 or Piotroski F-Score drops below 8 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Newmont has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 24.9%, including beats of 33.5%, 24.3%, 18.8%, and 22.9% — indicating conservative guidance, strong operational execution, and management credibility.
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 10% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P3With 85% of revenue derived from gold, Newmont's financial performance is substantially determined by a single commodity whose price is driven by macroeconomic factors including inflation expectations, real interest rates, and dollar strength — all outside management's control.
Trip ifGold price falls below $1,800 per ounce and sustains that level for more than 60 days.
- P4Analysts see 34% upside to the current price, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with 46% revenue growth, and the risk-reward ratio is 3.47 with 24% upside versus 7% downside — placing Newmont among the more attractively valued high-quality companies in the entire coverage universe.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines more than 15% from current levels or put-to-call ratio rises above 3.5.