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NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc.Hold6.1·$47.39-0.04%
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NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

NBT Bancorp conducts commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management primarily through NBT Bank, N.A. across 47 counties in upstate New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut. With $16.0 billion in assets at December 31, 2025,... Read more

$47.39+1.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#55 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.12%(5y avg 3.14%)Payout40.96%sustainable
Stop $45.18Target $47.83(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$48.92+3.2%6 analysts
$47.83our TP
$47.39price
$48.92mean
$47
$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NBT Bancorp Inc.

About NBT Bancorp Inc.

NBT Bancorp held $16.0 billion in total assets and $1.90 billion in stockholders' equity at December 31, 2025, following the May 2, 2025 acquisition of Evans Bancorp ($2.19 billion in assets, 18 banking locations in Western New York) funded with $221.8 million in common stock. NBT Bank, National Association — supervised by the OCC as its primary federal regulator — operates across 47 counties in New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut, with two reportable segments: Banking and Retirement Plan Administration.

Net interest income is NBT Bancorp's principal revenue source, driven by the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The loan portfolio was weighted approximately 56% toward commercial and industrial, agricultural, commercial construction, and CRE loans at December 31, 2025 — segments that carry higher credit risk because repayment depends on borrower cash flows and property income streams. Fee income streams include retirement plan administration through EPIC Advisors (national benefits administration firm, acquired 2005, headquartered in Rochester, New York), trust and wealth management via NBT Capital Management, and insurance distribution through NBT Insurance Agency. Deposit funding relies primarily on core checking, savings, money market, and CD accounts gathered through the 47-county branch network, with supplemental liquidity through FHLB of New York advances and brokered time deposits available when the company's basic surplus measure approaches its 5% minimum policy floor.

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The 56% commercial-and-CRE concentration amplifies credit cycle sensitivity relative to predominantly residential lenders. Item 1A notes that commercial loan repayment often depends on the successful operation of the property and the income stream of the borrowers, meaning deterioration of a few large-balance credits could cause a significant increase in nonperforming loans. The $1.67 billion in Evans Bancorp loans added in May 2025 carried a $95.2 million fair-value discount at acquisition; these loans are being accreted into income over their lives, and their credit quality is being integrated into the allowance model under CECL — a dynamic that may create quarter-to-quarter allowance volatility as post-acquisition economic forecasts evolve.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From NBT Bancorp Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.4%
ROE10.6%
Rev Growth21.6%
Beta0.50
Dividend3.12%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$45-5.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and CRE loans56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 56% of the Company's loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, agricultural, commercial construction and CRE loans'
  • MEDIUMGeographicupstate New York
    10-K Item 1A: 'Unlike larger national or other regional banks... the Company provides banking and financial services to customers primarily in the upstate New York areas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.99Resistance $48.81

Price Targets

$45
$48
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $47.83 (+0.9%), stop $45.18 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.83 (+1.1% upside). Target $47.83 (+0.9%), stop $45.18 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $45.18.

What are the risks of investing in NBTB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away).

Is NBTB overvalued or undervalued?

NBT Bancorp Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBTB?

13 analysts cover NBTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $49.

What does NBT Bancorp Inc. do?NBT Bancorp conducts commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management primarily through NBT Bank, N.A. across...

NBT Bancorp conducts commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management primarily through NBT Bank, N.A. across 47 counties in upstate New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut. With $16.0 billion in assets at December 31, 2025, net interest income on its loan portfolio (approximately 56% commercial and CRE) is the primary revenue source, supplemented by retirement plan administration fees via EPIC Advisors and trust and wealth management services.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · PNFP (Pinnacle Financial Partners, In) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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