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NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial, industrial, agricultural, and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

NBT Bancorp Inc. is a community-oriented financial holding company with $16B assets at Dec 31, 2025, providing commercial and retail banking, wealth management, retirement plan administration (EPIC Advisors), and insurance services primarily in upstate New York, northeastern... Read more

$44.07+3.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#36 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $41.74Target $45.50(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$48.92+11.0%6 analysts
$45.50our TP
$44.07price
$48.92mean
$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial, industrial, agricultural, and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.0Qual5.3Grw7.7Mom4.3Sent5.8Ins5.0Peer5.6Tech6.8Risk7.46.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial, industrial, agricultural, and CRE loans (56.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn26.4%
ROE10.6%
Rev Growth21.6%
Beta0.47
Dividend3.32%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$50+13.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial, industrial, agricultural, and CRE loans56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 56% of the Company's loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, agricultural, commercial construction and CRE loans'
  • MEDIUMGeographicupstate New York primary market
    10-K Item 1A: 'Unlike larger national or other regional banks that are more geographically diversified, the Company provides banking and financial services to customers primarily in the upstate New York areas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Amy C. Wiles, EVP Chief Credit Officer and Chief Risk Officer, notified the Company she will step down effective May 21, 2026 to a non-executive advisory role, then retire in January 2027. Transition was not the result of any disagreements. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.58Resistance $46.43

Price Targets

$42
$46
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial, industrial, agricultural, and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $45.50 (+3.2%), stop $41.74 (−5.6%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.50 (+3.2% upside). Target $45.50 (+3.2%), stop $41.74 (−5.6%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $41.74.

What are the risks of investing in NBTB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial, industrial, agricultural, and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NBTB overvalued or undervalued?

NBT Bancorp Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBTB?

13 analysts cover NBTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $49.

What does NBT Bancorp Inc. do?NBT Bancorp Inc. is a community-oriented financial holding company with $16B assets at Dec 31, 2025, providing...

NBT Bancorp Inc. is a community-oriented financial holding company with $16B assets at Dec 31, 2025, providing commercial and retail banking, wealth management, retirement plan administration (EPIC Advisors), and insurance services primarily in upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, NH, MA, VT, ME, and CT. Net interest income is the primary revenue driver.

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