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NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, agricultural, construction and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

NBT Bancorp is a $16B community bank holding company operating primarily in upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, Vermont, southern Maine, and central/northwestern Connecticut. Revenue is predominantly net interest income... Read more

$44.81+0.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#54 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.29%(5y avg 3.13%)Payout40.96%sustainable
Stop $42.91Target $44.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$48.92+9.2%6 analysts
$44.98our TP
$44.81price
$48.92mean
$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, agricultural, construction and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — NBT Bancorp Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, agricultural, construction and CRE loans (56.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.4%
ROE10.6%
Rev Growth21.6%
Beta0.48
Dividend3.29%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.64bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial, agricultural, construction and CRE loans56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, approximately 56% of the Company’s loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, agricultural, commercial construction and CRE loans.'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryOCC
    10-K Item 1: 'The Bank is subject to the supervision of, and to regular examination by, the OCC as its chartering authority and primary federal regulator.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.6
Macd
2.8
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.58Resistance $45.90

Price Targets

$43
$45
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.0% upside)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, agricultural, construction and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $44.98 (+0.4%), stop $42.91 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.98 (+0.4% upside). Target $44.98 (+0.4%), stop $42.91 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $42.91.

What are the risks of investing in NBTB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, agricultural, construction and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).

Is NBTB overvalued or undervalued?

NBT Bancorp Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBTB?

13 analysts cover NBTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $49.

What does NBT Bancorp Inc. do?NBT Bancorp is a $16B community bank holding company operating primarily in upstate New York, northeastern...

NBT Bancorp is a $16B community bank holding company operating primarily in upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, Vermont, southern Maine, and central/northwestern Connecticut. Revenue is predominantly net interest income from commercial, residential, and consumer loans plus fee income from wealth management, retirement plan administration, and insurance.

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