NBT Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x with a PEG of 0.38, growing revenue at 22% year-over-year with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a golden-cross breakout, yet the stock has already exceeded its analyst price target and carries a high concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans at 56% of the loan book.
Thesis pillars
- Cre Loan Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Strong Revenue Growth Attractive Peg↓Deteriorating
- Breakout Momentum Near 52 Week High↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $54.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%).
NBT Bancorp conducts commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management primarily through NBT Bank, N.A. across 47 counties in upstate New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut. With $16.0 billion in assets at December 31, 2025,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $54.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About NBT Bancorp Inc.
About NBT Bancorp Inc.
NBT Bancorp held $16.0 billion in total assets and $1.90 billion in stockholders' equity at December 31, 2025, following the May 2, 2025 acquisition of Evans Bancorp ($2.19 billion in assets, 18 banking locations in Western New York) funded with $221.8 million in common stock. NBT Bank, National Association — supervised by the OCC as its primary federal regulator — operates across 47 counties in New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut, with two reportable segments: Banking and Retirement Plan Administration.
Net interest income is NBT Bancorp's principal revenue source, driven by the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The loan portfolio was weighted approximately 56% toward commercial and industrial, agricultural, commercial construction, and CRE loans at December 31, 2025 — segments that carry higher credit risk because repayment depends on borrower cash flows and property income streams. Fee income streams include retirement plan administration through EPIC Advisors (national benefits administration firm, acquired 2005, headquartered in Rochester, New York), trust and wealth management via NBT Capital Management, and insurance distribution through NBT Insurance Agency. Deposit funding relies primarily on core checking, savings, money market, and CD accounts gathered through the 47-county branch network, with supplemental liquidity through FHLB of New York advances and brokered time deposits available when the company's basic surplus measure approaches its 5% minimum policy floor.
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The 56% commercial-and-CRE concentration amplifies credit cycle sensitivity relative to predominantly residential lenders. Item 1A notes that commercial loan repayment often depends on the successful operation of the property and the income stream of the borrowers, meaning deterioration of a few large-balance credits could cause a significant increase in nonperforming loans. The $1.67 billion in Evans Bancorp loans added in May 2025 carried a $95.2 million fair-value discount at acquisition; these loans are being accreted into income over their lives, and their credit quality is being integrated into the allowance model under CECL — a dynamic that may create quarter-to-quarter allowance volatility as post-acquisition economic forecasts evolve.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From NBT Bancorp Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — NBT Bancorp Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS NBT Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBTB) beats Q3 2026 sales expectations - StockStory — StockStory Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS NBT Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBTB) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.02 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NBTB) NBT Bancorp Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $1.11 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $1.09 - marketscreener. — marketscreener.com Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS NBT Bancorp Reports Record Q3 Earnings of $1.11 Per Share - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and CRE loans56%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 56% of the Company's loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, agricultural, commercial construction and CRE loans'
- MEDIUMGeographicupstate New York10-K Item 1A: 'Unlike larger national or other regional banks... the Company provides banking and financial services to customers primarily in the upstate New York areas'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $54.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $51.74. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $49.88 reached (−7.6% from $54.00); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $51.74. Stop-loss: $51.74.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and CRE loans (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.5% away).
NBT Bancorp Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate NBTB, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $57.
What does NBT Bancorp Inc. do?NBT Bancorp conducts commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management primarily through NBT Bank, N.A. across...
NBT Bancorp conducts commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management primarily through NBT Bank, N.A. across 47 counties in upstate New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut. With $16.0 billion in assets at December 31, 2025, net interest income on its loan portfolio (approximately 56% commercial and CRE) is the primary revenue source, supplemented by retirement plan administration fees via EPIC Advisors and trust and wealth management services.