Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
MTX · Why this verdict
Why Minerals Technologies (MTX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Minerals Technologies offers an attractive combination of a low forward P/E of 11x, a PEG ratio of 0.27, and a strong 3-of-4 earnings beat record, though the asymmetry-to-upside ratio is too thin at current prices to justify a new position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock's current price of $78.43 is already within 2.1% of the analyst price target of $80.11, producing an asymmetry ratio of only 0.34 and limiting the near-term reward relative to a 6.3% potential downside. V9 | A pullback brings the price below $74 before the next earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterGolden cross setup with the stock above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume could sustain the price near current levels without a meaningful correction. | ||
Minerals Technologies trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG ratio of just 0.27, suggesting the market is pricing in minimal growth despite a demonstrated track record of beating estimates. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 14x or the stock re-rates closer to the analyst price target of approximately $95 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBelow-average business quality scores and thin gross margins suggest the discount may reflect structural margin limitations rather than a temporary mispricing. | ||
Minerals Technologies beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, including a 9.9% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating strong operational execution. Earnings | The company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the positive surprise trend. | →Stable |
| CounterOne miss in the trailing 4 quarters and a weak Piotroski sub-score on gross margin suggest execution risk is not negligible, especially in a specialty chemicals demand slowdown. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 4.50 is among the most elevated in the market, signaling that options participants are positioning heavily for downside — a warning that sophisticated money sees near-term risk. Options | The put-to-call ratio declines below 2.0 as hedging pressure normalizes following the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-call ratios in small-cap specialty chemicals stocks can reflect hedging by long holders rather than speculative bearishness, and often reverse without a price decline. | ||
The stock's current price of $78.43 is already within 2.1% of the analyst price target of $80.11, producing an asymmetry ratio of only 0.34 and limiting the near-term reward relative to a 6.3% potential downside.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- A pullback brings the price below $74 before the next earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable entry point.
CounterGolden cross setup with the stock above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume could sustain the price near current levels without a meaningful correction.
Minerals Technologies trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG ratio of just 0.27, suggesting the market is pricing in minimal growth despite a demonstrated track record of beating estimates.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 14x or the stock re-rates closer to the analyst price target of approximately $95 over the next 12 months.
CounterBelow-average business quality scores and thin gross margins suggest the discount may reflect structural margin limitations rather than a temporary mispricing.
Minerals Technologies beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, including a 9.9% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating strong operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the positive surprise trend.
CounterOne miss in the trailing 4 quarters and a weak Piotroski sub-score on gross margin suggest execution risk is not negligible, especially in a specialty chemicals demand slowdown.
The put-to-call ratio of 4.50 is among the most elevated in the market, signaling that options participants are positioning heavily for downside — a warning that sophisticated money sees near-term risk.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio declines below 2.0 as hedging pressure normalizes following the next earnings report.
CounterElevated put-call ratios in small-cap specialty chemicals stocks can reflect hedging by long holders rather than speculative bearishness, and often reverse without a price decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 4.2 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 53% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,240,070 (0.092% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 61.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.16
Upside
+0.9%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Growth at 7.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Insider at 3.9, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Minerals Technologies trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG ratio of just 0.27, suggesting the market is pricing in minimal growth despite a demonstrated track record of beating estimates.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x without a corresponding earnings revision higher.
- P2Minerals Technologies beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, including a 9.9% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating strong operational execution.
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3The stock's current price of $78.43 is already within 2.1% of the analyst price target of $80.11, producing an asymmetry ratio of only 0.34 and limiting the near-term reward relative to a 6.3% potential downside.
Trip ifStock price rises above $82 (more than 4.5% above the $80.11 target) without an analyst target upgrade.
- P4The put-to-call ratio of 4.50 is among the most elevated in the market, signaling that options participants are positioning heavily for downside — a warning that sophisticated money sees near-term risk.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 3.0 for more than 30 days after the next earnings report.