Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
- ▸Attractively valued
MLI · Why this verdict
Why Mueller Industries (MLI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.6 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 1.8 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-8.0%)
- ▸Contrarian divergence: +2.0 (bearish sentiment + deep value + high quality)
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $14,433,209 (0.095% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Estimates down -8.0% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 102.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Insider at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Value at 7.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Catalyst at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.