Value
0.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
LLYVK · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. - S (LLYVK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Headline revenue growth of 35% year-over-year and positive price momentum sit alongside quality at the floor of the investable range (1.3 out of 10, Piotroski F-Score 2 out of 9), two consecutive large earnings misses, and a stock that has already exceeded its technical target — the combination of no quality foundation, negative asymmetry, and concentrated counterparty exposure makes this an exit candidate rather than a hold.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A quality score of 1.3 out of 10 — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9 and near-zero scores across margins and returns — falls well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, indicating the business lacks the financial health needed to sustain its growth rate. Warnings | Quality improves: the Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 and at least one key margin metric (operating or net margin) turns positive within 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 35% year-over-year revenue growth rate can attract capital and improve the balance sheet rapidly even from a weak starting point; the quality deficit may narrow faster than the score implies if operating leverage kicks in. | ||
The two most recent reported quarters both produced large negative EPS surprises (-2,362% and -172%), signaling that management guidance is materially disconnected from actual results and that consensus estimates for future quarters may remain too optimistic. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the guidance gap has been closed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe oldest comparable quarter in the trailing window delivered a +309% positive surprise, demonstrating that when results inflect, the beats can be dramatic; a guidance reset followed by even modest delivery could sharply re-rate sentiment. | ||
A single counterparty rated HIGH in annual risk disclosures creates a concentrated revenue dependency that, if disrupted, would have limited near-term offsets — and at a quality score of 1.3, the business has little financial resilience to absorb the shock. Bear case | The number of disclosed major counterparties exceeds 1 in a subsequent annual filing, reducing single-name exposure. | →Stable |
| CounterA dominant, long-standing partner relationship may reflect an entrenched competitive position rather than a fragility; the market may be assigning a premium to exclusivity rather than penalizing concentration. | ||
The stock has moved through its technical target (upside of -2.9%) and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.27, with potential downside of 10.5% against effectively no remaining upside — the risk/reward is unfavorable and the asymmetry gate is failed. Engine gate (failed) | The situation persists: the stock either retreats more than 5% from current levels or the upside to a revised target remains below 5% for the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst upgrades following a positive earnings surprise could raise consensus targets above the current price, reopening upside and restoring a favorable entry geometry from present levels. | ||
A quality score of 1.3 out of 10 — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9 and near-zero scores across margins and returns — falls well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, indicating the business lacks the financial health needed to sustain its growth rate.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality improves: the Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 and at least one key margin metric (operating or net margin) turns positive within 4 quarters.
CounterA 35% year-over-year revenue growth rate can attract capital and improve the balance sheet rapidly even from a weak starting point; the quality deficit may narrow faster than the score implies if operating leverage kicks in.
The two most recent reported quarters both produced large negative EPS surprises (-2,362% and -172%), signaling that management guidance is materially disconnected from actual results and that consensus estimates for future quarters may remain too optimistic.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the guidance gap has been closed.
CounterThe oldest comparable quarter in the trailing window delivered a +309% positive surprise, demonstrating that when results inflect, the beats can be dramatic; a guidance reset followed by even modest delivery could sharply re-rate sentiment.
A single counterparty rated HIGH in annual risk disclosures creates a concentrated revenue dependency that, if disrupted, would have limited near-term offsets — and at a quality score of 1.3, the business has little financial resilience to absorb the shock.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The number of disclosed major counterparties exceeds 1 in a subsequent annual filing, reducing single-name exposure.
CounterA dominant, long-standing partner relationship may reflect an entrenched competitive position rather than a fragility; the market may be assigning a premium to exclusivity rather than penalizing concentration.
The stock has moved through its technical target (upside of -2.9%) and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.27, with potential downside of 10.5% against effectively no remaining upside — the risk/reward is unfavorable and the asymmetry gate is failed.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The situation persists: the stock either retreats more than 5% from current levels or the upside to a revised target remains below 5% for the next 2 quarters.
CounterAnalyst upgrades following a positive earnings surprise could raise consensus targets above the current price, reopening upside and restoring a favorable entry geometry from present levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.30
Upside
-3.3%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, and Sentiment at 5.6; the weakest are Value at 0.0, Quality at 1.3, and Catalyst at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A quality score of 1.3 out of 10 — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9 and near-zero scores across margins and returns — falls well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, indicating the business lacks the financial health needed to sustain its growth rate.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 6 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The two most recent reported quarters both produced large negative EPS surprises (-2,362% and -172%), signaling that management guidance is materially disconnected from actual results and that consensus estimates for future quarters may remain too optimistic.
Trip ifEPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3A single counterparty rated HIGH in annual risk disclosures creates a concentrated revenue dependency that, if disrupted, would have limited near-term offsets — and at a quality score of 1.3, the business has little financial resilience to absorb the shock.
Trip ifThe number of disclosed major counterparties exceeds 1 in a subsequent annual regulatory filing.
- P4The stock has moved through its technical target (upside of -2.9%) and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.27, with potential downside of 10.5% against effectively no remaining upside — the risk/reward is unfavorable and the asymmetry gate is failed.
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% following an analyst consensus target revision.