Should you buy Lazard (LAZ)?
Updated
Lazard combines a wide economic moat, a return on equity of 34%, and a compelling valuation at 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.16, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—death cross, below all moving averages—and the dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe, making the near-term risk/reward unfavorable despite the underlying quality.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock screens as attractively valued both in absolute terms and relative to its growth trajectory, with an analyst consensus target implying modest remaining upside to the $45.24 take-profit level. Value | Over 12 months, earnings grow in line with current estimates, the forward multiple remains below 15x as earnings expand, and the stock moves above the $45.24 take-profit level as the technical headwinds resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly 2.7% upside remains to the take-profit level, meaning the valuation discount is largely priced in at current levels—unless the stock pulls back meaningfully to open a wider entry margin, the attractive valuation alone does not create an actionable setup. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 34%, carries a wide economic moat designation, a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, and scores as a compounder-quality franchise—a quality profile that has historically supported premium valuation through cycles. Quality | Over 12 months, return on equity holds at or above 25% and the financial-health score remains at 7 or higher, confirming the moat is generating durable returns regardless of the technical environment. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced an earnings miss of 17%, breaking a three-quarter beat streak, which may signal that the quality base is being pressured by cyclical capital-markets revenue headwinds—the moat may not insulate earnings in a prolonged deal-making slowdown. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—trading below all moving averages with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day, an RSI of 38, and the 200-day moving average declining at 1.7% per 30-day period—a pattern that has historically preceded extended weakness in financial-services stocks. Momentum | Over 12 months, the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day, the stock holds above both averages for 2 consecutive months, and momentum rises above 5.0—signaling a genuine trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is rising despite the price weakness, indicating buyers are accumulating on dips; if volume-driven buying continues to exceed selling pressure, the moving-average picture could repair faster than the price action alone suggests. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock screens as attractively valued both in absolute terms and relative to its growth trajectory, with an analyst consensus target implying modest remaining upside to the $45.24 take-profit level.
→Stable- Expectation
- Over 12 months, earnings grow in line with current estimates, the forward multiple remains below 15x as earnings expand, and the stock moves above the $45.24 take-profit level as the technical headwinds resolve.
CounterOnly 2.7% upside remains to the take-profit level, meaning the valuation discount is largely priced in at current levels—unless the stock pulls back meaningfully to open a wider entry margin, the attractive valuation alone does not create an actionable setup.
The business earns a return on equity of 34%, carries a wide economic moat designation, a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, and scores as a compounder-quality franchise—a quality profile that has historically supported premium valuation through cycles.
→Stable- Expectation
- Over 12 months, return on equity holds at or above 25% and the financial-health score remains at 7 or higher, confirming the moat is generating durable returns regardless of the technical environment.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced an earnings miss of 17%, breaking a three-quarter beat streak, which may signal that the quality base is being pressured by cyclical capital-markets revenue headwinds—the moat may not insulate earnings in a prolonged deal-making slowdown.
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—trading below all moving averages with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day, an RSI of 38, and the 200-day moving average declining at 1.7% per 30-day period—a pattern that has historically preceded extended weakness in financial-services stocks.
→Stable- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day, the stock holds above both averages for 2 consecutive months, and momentum rises above 5.0—signaling a genuine trend reversal.
CounterOn-balance volume is rising despite the price weakness, indicating buyers are accumulating on dips; if volume-driven buying continues to exceed selling pressure, the moving-average picture could repair faster than the price action alone suggests.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe—a high nominal yield that may not be sustainably covered by current earnings power—which adds a payout-cut risk that could pressure the stock independent of the underlying business quality.
→Stable- Expectation
- Over 12 months, earnings per share covers the dividend payment with a payout ratio below 70% for at least 2 consecutive quarters, removing the yield-trap concern.
CounterThree of the last four quarters were beats before the recent miss, and if the most recent shortfall is idiosyncratic rather than structural, the underlying earnings capacity may be sufficient to sustain the dividend at the current rate.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business earns a return on equity of 34%, carries a wide economic moat designation, a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, and scores as a compounder-quality franchise—a quality profile that has historically supported premium valuation through cycles.
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—trading below all moving averages with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day, an RSI of 38, and the 200-day moving average declining at 1.7% per 30-day period—a pattern that has historically preceded extended weakness in financial-services stocks.
Trip if50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for 2 consecutive months.
- P3At a forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock screens as attractively valued both in absolute terms and relative to its growth trajectory, with an analyst consensus target implying modest remaining upside to the $45.24 take-profit level.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x without a corresponding increase in earnings estimates.
- P4The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe—a high nominal yield that may not be sustainably covered by current earnings power—which adds a payout-cut risk that could pressure the stock independent of the underlying business quality.
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 70% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the yield is comfortably covered.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Lazard, Inc. (LAZ) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 6.1/10 at $40.86. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 0.79 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 1.1 vs threshold 4.5 (with co-failures: reward-to-risk, death cross). SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is INSIDER:OK.
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (3/4); Attractive valuation; Strong growth profile. On the bear side: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Active engine warnings: V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5, V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot, V9 Gate Failed: DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $40.86, with structural invalidation at $38.67. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 1.91 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates LAZ — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- ▸Attractive valuation
- ▸Strong growth profile
Bear case
- ▸Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
- ▸Negative momentum
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)