Value
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.1 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 29.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.52
KEYS · Why this verdict
Why Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Keysight Technologies is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong margins, and 32% revenue growth, but the stock is trading above its near-term price target with negative effective upside, making the current setup unattractive despite the underlying franchise's merits.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 32% year over year and the most recent quarter delivered a 23.69% positive earnings surprise — a meaningful step-up from the two prior beats — placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth momentum. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth rate stays above 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the company's peer-leading growth position. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior earnings miss of 19% shows that a single soft quarter can sharply reverse the growth narrative; if demand in end markets softens, the 30%-plus growth rate may prove a high-water mark rather than a sustainable run rate. | ||
The company combines a wide economic moat with strong margins of 17%, a near-perfect financial health score (9 out of 9 Piotroski), and compounding-quality characteristics — indicating durable earnings power well above typical peers in the scientific instruments sector. Quality breakdown | Gross and operating margins remain above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the durability of the quality profile. | →Stable |
| CounterA 19% earnings miss in the oldest reported quarter demonstrates the business is not immune to cyclical demand swings; the moat may not prevent periodic revenue compression during down cycles. | ||
At a forward P/E of 30.1x with the stock already above its near-term price target, the current setup offers no effective upside and carries a negative risk/reward — the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario with no cushion for disappointment. Warnings | Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth outpaces the stock price, restoring a margin of safety. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium multiples are defensible for businesses with wide moats and 30%-plus growth; sustained earnings-estimate upgrades could compress the multiple naturally through earnings growth without requiring a price correction. | ||
Rising on-balance volume alongside a price positioned above the 200-day moving average suggests institutional accumulation is underway — a condition that, if sustained, tends to support continued price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues trending upward for 3 consecutive months, confirming ongoing institutional engagement. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is trading near its 52-week high, technically extended; one soft earnings quarter — as occurred in the oldest reported period — can sharply reset expectations and quickly reverse accumulation signals. | ||
Revenue grew 32% year over year and the most recent quarter delivered a 23.69% positive earnings surprise — a meaningful step-up from the two prior beats — placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth momentum.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate stays above 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the company's peer-leading growth position.
CounterThe prior earnings miss of 19% shows that a single soft quarter can sharply reverse the growth narrative; if demand in end markets softens, the 30%-plus growth rate may prove a high-water mark rather than a sustainable run rate.
The company combines a wide economic moat with strong margins of 17%, a near-perfect financial health score (9 out of 9 Piotroski), and compounding-quality characteristics — indicating durable earnings power well above typical peers in the scientific instruments sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross and operating margins remain above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the durability of the quality profile.
CounterA 19% earnings miss in the oldest reported quarter demonstrates the business is not immune to cyclical demand swings; the moat may not prevent periodic revenue compression during down cycles.
At a forward P/E of 30.1x with the stock already above its near-term price target, the current setup offers no effective upside and carries a negative risk/reward — the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario with no cushion for disappointment.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth outpaces the stock price, restoring a margin of safety.
CounterPremium multiples are defensible for businesses with wide moats and 30%-plus growth; sustained earnings-estimate upgrades could compress the multiple naturally through earnings growth without requiring a price correction.
Rising on-balance volume alongside a price positioned above the 200-day moving average suggests institutional accumulation is underway — a condition that, if sustained, tends to support continued price appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues trending upward for 3 consecutive months, confirming ongoing institutional engagement.
CounterThe stock is trading near its 52-week high, technically extended; one soft earnings quarter — as occurred in the oldest reported period — can sharply reset expectations and quickly reverse accumulation signals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.4 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 8.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,279,670 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $160
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:54d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-8.5%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Value at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Quality at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Value at 3.4, Technical at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company combines a wide economic moat with strong margins of 17%, a near-perfect financial health score (9 out of 9 Piotroski), and compounding-quality characteristics — indicating durable earnings power well above typical peers in the scientific instruments sector.
Trip ifGross margin falls below 14% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue grew 32% year over year and the most recent quarter delivered a 23.69% positive earnings surprise — a meaningful step-up from the two prior beats — placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth momentum.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3At a forward P/E of 30.1x with the stock already above its near-term price target, the current setup offers no effective upside and carries a negative risk/reward — the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario with no cushion for disappointment.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth outpaces price appreciation.
- P4Rising on-balance volume alongside a price positioned above the 200-day moving average suggests institutional accumulation is underway — a condition that, if sustained, tends to support continued price appreciation.
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls below its prior 8-week average for 8 consecutive weeks.