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Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver that combines advanced AI-powered software with modular and vehicle-agnostic hardware designed to help address its customers. The company... Read more

$7.98+35.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#24 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-6.41%
Stop $7.42Target $10.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$12.40+55.4%5 analysts
$10.79our TP
$7.98price
$12.40mean
$15

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Kodiak AI, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 35%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-12.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA-12.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE
Rev Growth24.4%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV93%elevated
Max Pain$3-68.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.2
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.88Resistance $9.23

Price Targets

$7
$11
A.Upside+35.2%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KDK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $7.42. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KDK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.79 (+35.2% upside). Prior stop was $7.42. Stop-loss: $7.42.

What are the risks of investing in KDK?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is KDK overvalued or undervalued?

Kodiak AI, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KDK?

9 analysts cover KDK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Kodiak AI, Inc. do?Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak...

Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver that combines advanced AI-powered software with modular and vehicle-agnostic hardware designed to help address its customers. The company also provides oversight and integration tools, including Kodiak OnTime, a proprietary suite of support services and tools designed to provide smooth integration with customer operations. In addition, it delivers freight through its autonomous trucks; and offers driver-as-a-service to its customers. Kodiak AI, Inc. has strategic collaboration with General Dynamics Land Systems to create autonomous ground vehicles (AGVs) for defense applications. The company serves long-haul trucking, industrial trucking, and defense industries. Kodiak AI, Inc. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

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