Strong revenue growth of 24% annually is being undermined by a cash burn rate of -2,088% of revenue, three consecutive earnings misses, and a falling-knife technical pattern — an analytically attractive long-term risk/reward of nearly 11-to-1 is not yet actionable until execution and price action stabilize.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth Deep Cash Burn→Stable
- Falling Knife Technical Breakdown↑Improving
- Consecutive Earnings Execution Gap↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.94: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 11.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver that combines advanced AI-powered software with modular and vehicle-agnostic hardware designed to help address its customers. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.94: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 11.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-18Recent Developments — Kodiak AI, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings Flash (KDK) Kodiak AI, Inc. Reports Q2 Revenue $3.5M, vs. FactSet Est of $2.6M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Kodiak AI to report Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026 - scanx.trade — scanx.trade neutral
- NEWS Kodiak AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:KDK) Given Consensus Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Kodiak AI to Report Financial Results Post-market on August 06 - news.futunn.com — news.futunn.com neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Kodiak AI to Report Financial Results Post-market on August 06 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
Generated 2026-09-18T10:17:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerAtlas Energy Solutions46%10-K Item 1A: 'for the year ended December 31, 2025, we recognized revenue from Atlas of $1.8 million, which represented 46% of our total revenue.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Army26%10-K Item 1A: 'we recognized revenue from the U.S. Army of $1.0 million, $13.3 million, and $15.0 million, respectively, which represented 26%, 89%, and 89%, respectively, of our revenues in such periods.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle or limited-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on our third-party suppliers, OEMs, upfitters, service providers and partners, some of which are single or limited-source suppliers or providers of certain key components for, and services used in connection with, the Kodiak Driver.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-02Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved base salary increases for CEO Don Burnette ($425K to $525K, bonus target raised to 100% of salary), CFO Surajit Datta and COO Michael Wiesinger (both $400K to $450K), plus RSU grants, effective July 1, 2026. Routine compensation review, no departures.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.94: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 11.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $3.56. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $9.13 (+138.5% upside). Prior stop was $3.56. Stop-loss: $3.56.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited-source suppliers; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Kodiak AI, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -4.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover KDK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Kodiak AI, Inc. do?Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak...
Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver that combines advanced AI-powered software with modular and vehicle-agnostic hardware designed to help address its customers. The company also provides oversight and integration tools, including Kodiak OnTime, a proprietary suite of support services and tools designed to provide smooth integration with customer operations. In addition, it delivers freight through its autonomous trucks; and offers driver-as-a-service to its customers. Kodiak AI, Inc. has strategic collaboration with General Dynamics Land Systems to create autonomous ground vehicles (AGVs) for defense applications. The company serves long-haul trucking, industrial trucking, and defense industries. Kodiak AI, Inc. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.