Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
JKS · Why this verdict
Why JinkoSolar Holding Company Limi (JKS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
JinkoSolar screens as deeply discounted with a PEG of 0.25 and 35.2% upside to the analyst target, but near-zero profitability across all margin and return metrics, a 12% revenue decline, and a confirmed death cross with a falling-knife technical classification make any investment case highly speculative pending demonstrated business stabilization.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue fell 12% year-over-year, signaling that demand or pricing pressure is materially impacting the top line of a capital-intensive business with minimal profitability cushion to absorb the contraction. Growth breakdown | Revenue stabilizes and grows at least 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the contraction trend and providing the first evidence the investment case can re-engage. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 48.55% positive earnings surprise, hinting that loss rates may be improving faster than the market expects, even from a deeply negative starting point; a revenue trough can precede an earnings recovery. | ||
Return on equity, return on assets, gross margin, operating margin, and net margin all score at or near zero, indicating the business is currently generating little to no economic value for shareholders. Quality breakdown | At least 2 of the five core profitability metrics—gross margin, operating margin, net margin, return on assets, or return on equity—turn measurably positive for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's 48.55% positive earnings surprise hints that sequential improvement may be underway, even if starting from a deeply negative base; the loss rate may be narrowing faster than consensus expects. | ||
At a PEG of 0.25 and 35.2% potential upside to the analyst target, the market has priced in an extreme pessimism discount that creates a contrarian value case if the underlying business can stabilize. Valuation breakdown | The analyst consensus price target holds above $24 and the stock closes at least 15% of the gap to that target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of 2 out of 9 combined with near-zero scores across every profitability metric indicates the business has no demonstrated earnings power from which to justify even a compressed valuation; a cheap price can get cheaper if fundamentals continue to erode. | ||
A confirmed death cross hard block, below-all-moving-averages price action, and RSI at 36 establish a falling-knife technical environment where additional downside pressure is likely absent a fundamental catalyst. Engine gate (failed) | Price crosses above the 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 2 quarters, signaling a shift from technical deterioration to recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume despite ongoing price weakness suggests accumulation may be occurring below the surface; falling-knife setups occasionally mark capitulation bottoms rather than continuation patterns. | ||
Revenue fell 12% year-over-year, signaling that demand or pricing pressure is materially impacting the top line of a capital-intensive business with minimal profitability cushion to absorb the contraction.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stabilizes and grows at least 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the contraction trend and providing the first evidence the investment case can re-engage.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 48.55% positive earnings surprise, hinting that loss rates may be improving faster than the market expects, even from a deeply negative starting point; a revenue trough can precede an earnings recovery.
Return on equity, return on assets, gross margin, operating margin, and net margin all score at or near zero, indicating the business is currently generating little to no economic value for shareholders.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- At least 2 of the five core profitability metrics—gross margin, operating margin, net margin, return on assets, or return on equity—turn measurably positive for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter's 48.55% positive earnings surprise hints that sequential improvement may be underway, even if starting from a deeply negative base; the loss rate may be narrowing faster than consensus expects.
At a PEG of 0.25 and 35.2% potential upside to the analyst target, the market has priced in an extreme pessimism discount that creates a contrarian value case if the underlying business can stabilize.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target holds above $24 and the stock closes at least 15% of the gap to that target within 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski score of 2 out of 9 combined with near-zero scores across every profitability metric indicates the business has no demonstrated earnings power from which to justify even a compressed valuation; a cheap price can get cheaper if fundamentals continue to erode.
A confirmed death cross hard block, below-all-moving-averages price action, and RSI at 36 establish a falling-knife technical environment where additional downside pressure is likely absent a fundamental catalyst.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price crosses above the 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 2 quarters, signaling a shift from technical deterioration to recovery.
CounterRising on-balance volume despite ongoing price weakness suggests accumulation may be occurring below the surface; falling-knife setups occasionally mark capitulation bottoms rather than continuation patterns.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 83%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $33,046,160 (3.654% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $0.90B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.80
Upside
+59.0%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.6, and Technical at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.2, Momentum at 1.9, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a PEG of 0.25 and 35.2% potential upside to the analyst target, the market has priced in an extreme pessimism discount that creates a contrarian value case if the underlying business can stabilize.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $22 for 2 consecutive quarters, reducing potential upside to less than 10% from current levels and removing the distressed-valuation justification.
- P2Revenue fell 12% year-over-year, signaling that demand or pricing pressure is materially impacting the top line of a capital-intensive business with minimal profitability cushion to absorb the contraction.
Trip ifRevenue grows more than 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the decline.
- P3Return on equity, return on assets, gross margin, operating margin, and net margin all score at or near zero, indicating the business is currently generating little to no economic value for shareholders.
Trip ifAt least 2 of the 5 core profitability metrics—gross margin, operating margin, net margin, return on assets, or return on equity—turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4A confirmed death cross hard block, below-all-moving-averages price action, and RSI at 36 establish a falling-knife technical environment where additional downside pressure is likely absent a fundamental catalyst.
Trip ifPrice crosses and sustains above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the confirmed death cross structure.