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JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.Sell5.1·$147.88
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Jack Henry & Associates demonstrates a rare four-quarter perfect beat streak, high-quality net margins of 21%, and 25.5% upside to the analyst target at a 4-to-1 risk/reward—but a confirmed price downtrend at -2.6% per month slope and elevated leverage create timing risk for new positions despite the quality and asymmetry credentials.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Margins Piotroski→Stable
  • Four Quarter Perfect Beat Streak→Stable
  • Favorable 25pct Upside Asymmetry↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a financial technology company providing core data processing, digital banking, payments, and complementary technology solutions to approximately 7,400 community and regional banks, credit unions, and other corporate entities. The company... Read more

$147.88+15.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#34 of 45 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.40%
IncomeYield1.64%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout34.10%sustainable
Stop $142.12Target $171.21(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$190.24+28.6%17 analysts
$171.21our TP
$147.88price
$190.24mean
$209

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.

About Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.

Jack Henry & Associates serves approximately 7,400 financial institutions and corporate entities, including over 950 banks on one of three core processing platforms and about 715 credit unions on its Symitar platform — roughly 1,670 core clients plus over 5,710 non-core clients. Its SilverLake System alone serves 520 banks, nearly 12% of the roughly 4,440 U.S. banks with $55 billion or less in assets, with support revenue anchored by six-year hosted-cloud and one-year on-premise contracts.

Jack Henry earns revenue from software license fees and ongoing annual support fees (typically priced around 20% of the license fee) for on-premise clients, recurring per-account and minimum-guarantee fees from clients who outsource core processing to its private cloud under six-year contracts, and hardware remarketing through agreements with IBM, Lenovo, Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Cisco, among other providers. Complementary and payment products layer on top of the core platforms, including JHA Card Processing Solutions, Enterprise Payment Solutions, and the Payrailz payments platform, which connect to card networks and faster-payment rails such as Visa, Mastercard, Zelle, FedNow, and The Clearing House's RTP network. The company has completed 35 acquisitions since fiscal 1999 — most recently Payrailz in fiscal 2023 — to expand its complementary product suite, and it is investing in the cloud-native, API-first Jack Henry Platform to modernize core functions like wire transfers, general ledger, and deposit servicing for clients seeking public-cloud delivery.

Show full overview

Jack Henry's shift toward outsourced infrastructure concentrates a risk the 10-K names directly: as the company moves more computing, storage, and processing out of its own data centers, it relies on certain third-party vendors for large portions of its hosting needs, and that reliance is set to deepen as more clients move to private and public cloud delivery. Because Jack Henry doesn't control those vendors' operations, a failure at one of these concentrated hosting partners could disrupt service delivery to a meaningful share of its roughly 7,400 financial-institution and corporate clients simultaneously, a risk distinct from the software-defect or in-house infrastructure failures the filing also describes.

See also: Technology · Information Technology Services

From Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$10.4B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn19.8%
ROE24.0%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta0.56
Dividend1.64%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$100-32.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartythird-party hosting vendors
    10-K Item 1A: 'we use certain third-party vendors to provide large portions of our hosting needs'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    David B. Foss, Chair of the Board and former CEO (2016-2024), notified the Board on May 29, 2026 of his intent to retire as a director effective July 15, 2026; the company states his departure does not relate to any disagreement with management or the Board.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 1.01MEDIUM
    On March 25, 2026, the company entered a new $1.0 billion, five-year unsecured revolving Credit Agreement with U.S. Bank as administrative agent, replacing and terminating its existing $600 million facility (~$80 million outstanding refinanced into the new facility); no early termination penalties.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $146.52Resistance $170.33

Price Targets

$142
$171
A.Upside+15.8%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JKHY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $142.12. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JKHY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $171.21 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $142.12. Stop-loss: $142.12.

What are the risks of investing in JKHY?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is JKHY overvalued or undervalued?

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JKHY?

23 analysts cover JKHY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $190.

What does Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. do?Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a financial technology company providing core data processing, digital banking,...

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a financial technology company providing core data processing, digital banking, payments, and complementary technology solutions to approximately 7,400 community and regional banks, credit unions, and other corporate entities. The company operates three core banking platforms (SilverLake, CIF 20/20, Core Director) supporting over 950 banks and one core credit union platform (Symitar) supporting about 715 credit unions.

Related stocks: INOD (Innodata Inc.) · FIS (Fidelity National Information S) · CACI (CACI International, Inc.) · INGM (Ingram Micro Holding Corporatio) · MGRT (Mega Fortune Company Limited)
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