Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.78
- ▸Attractively valued
JEF · Why this verdict
Why Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Jefferies delivered 27% revenue growth year-over-year but trades with only 0.4% headroom to near-term resistance, RSI at 83, and an earnings report due in eight days—the growth narrative is intact but the entry geometry is unfavorable with 15% downside against near-zero upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 27% year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum in the underlying capital markets business that could support further earnings expansion if the trajectory holds. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the expansion is durable rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the last four quarters ended in earnings misses, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, suggesting revenue strength is not consistently translating to bottom-line delivery; elevated leverage at a debt-to-equity of 3.4 amplifies both upside and any shortfall. | ||
The stock trades just below near-term resistance with only 0.4% of potential upside against 15% of defined downside, producing a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.06-to-1 that makes this an unattractive point to initiate or add to a position. Price targets | Price pulls back toward $56 over the next quarter, improving the reward-to-risk ratio to above 1.5-to-1 and restoring a favorable entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong on-balance volume and an above-200-MA position could drive prices through near-term resistance if the upcoming earnings report surprises positively, making the current level a launchpad rather than a ceiling. | ||
RSI at 83 places the stock in overbought territory alongside a flat or declining 200-day moving average slope, while implied volatility at 129% indicates the options market is pricing in a meaningful near-term move—conditions consistent with late-cycle distribution risk. Risk breakdown | RSI cools below 65 and implied volatility normalizes below 80% over the next quarter without a sharp price decline, indicating the overbought condition resolves by time rather than correction. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovering MACD and sustained on-balance volume accumulation suggest institutional participation remains intact; overbought readings can persist for weeks through an earnings catalyst. | ||
Two misses in the last four quarters, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, introduce meaningful uncertainty into the earnings cadence with a report due in eight days. Catalyst breakdown | The next two quarters deliver consecutive positive earnings surprises of at least 5%, restoring a consistent beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterWhen the company beats, it does so substantially—26% and 20% in the two prior beats—suggesting the business can execute strongly under favorable conditions and that misses may reflect timing rather than structural weakness. | ||
Revenue grew 27% year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum in the underlying capital markets business that could support further earnings expansion if the trajectory holds.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the expansion is durable rather than episodic.
CounterTwo of the last four quarters ended in earnings misses, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, suggesting revenue strength is not consistently translating to bottom-line delivery; elevated leverage at a debt-to-equity of 3.4 amplifies both upside and any shortfall.
The stock trades just below near-term resistance with only 0.4% of potential upside against 15% of defined downside, producing a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.06-to-1 that makes this an unattractive point to initiate or add to a position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward $56 over the next quarter, improving the reward-to-risk ratio to above 1.5-to-1 and restoring a favorable entry geometry.
CounterStrong on-balance volume and an above-200-MA position could drive prices through near-term resistance if the upcoming earnings report surprises positively, making the current level a launchpad rather than a ceiling.
RSI at 83 places the stock in overbought territory alongside a flat or declining 200-day moving average slope, while implied volatility at 129% indicates the options market is pricing in a meaningful near-term move—conditions consistent with late-cycle distribution risk.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 65 and implied volatility normalizes below 80% over the next quarter without a sharp price decline, indicating the overbought condition resolves by time rather than correction.
CounterRecovering MACD and sustained on-balance volume accumulation suggest institutional participation remains intact; overbought readings can persist for weeks through an earnings catalyst.
Two misses in the last four quarters, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, introduce meaningful uncertainty into the earnings cadence with a report due in eight days.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The next two quarters deliver consecutive positive earnings surprises of at least 5%, restoring a consistent beat pattern.
CounterWhen the company beats, it does so substantially—26% and 20% in the two prior beats—suggesting the business can execute strongly under favorable conditions and that misses may reflect timing rather than structural weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $310,022,578 (2.617% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 1.6 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:2.62%=EXTREME
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.25
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot, INSIDER:2.62%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Value at 7.1, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Peer rank at 4.8, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue grew 27% year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum in the underlying capital markets business that could support further earnings expansion if the trajectory holds.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The stock trades just below near-term resistance with only 0.4% of potential upside against 15% of defined downside, producing a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.06-to-1 that makes this an unattractive point to initiate or add to a position.
Trip ifUpside to the near-term price target expands to more than 10% for 4 consecutive weeks, implying a meaningful pullback or target upgrade that restores a favorable entry opportunity.
- P3RSI at 83 places the stock in overbought territory alongside a flat or declining 200-day moving average slope, while implied volatility at 129% indicates the options market is pricing in a meaningful near-term move—conditions consistent with late-cycle distribution risk.
Trip ifPrice rallies more than 15% above current levels while RSI sustains above 75 for 4 consecutive weeks, demonstrating the overbought condition is not resolving via mean reversion.
- P4Two misses in the last four quarters, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, introduce meaningful uncertainty into the earnings cadence with a report due in eight days.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, restoring a consistent beat cadence.