Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸Attractively valued
JBS · Why this verdict
Why JBS (JBS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
An attractively valued franchise trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 7.4 times with 43.6% implied upside to the analyst target is constrained by business quality that falls just short of the minimum threshold, most critically evidenced by free cash flow at only 23% of reported net income—a gap that calls into question the reliability of stated profits.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow represents only 23% of reported net income—flagged as a quality red flag—meaning the wide gap between stated earnings and actual cash generation raises serious questions about whether the reported profits are a reliable measure of economic performance. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% for two consecutive reporting periods, narrowing the gap between reported and cash earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 and a current ratio of 5.5 indicate the balance sheet is not in distress; the FCF shortfall may reflect a temporary working-capital or investment phase rather than a structural earnings quality problem. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 7.4 times and with analysts implying 43.6% upside to the consensus price target, the stock screens as attractively valued on both an absolute and a peer-relative basis, with a price-to-earnings ratio among the most compelling in the peer group. Valuation breakdown | Price appreciates at least 25% toward the analyst target within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple can persist or compress further when quality is impaired; a business generating free cash flow at only 23% of net income may deserve a discounted multiple, and the 43.6% implied upside may require a quality improvement catalyst to be realized. | ||
The overall quality composite sits just below the minimum threshold required for a standard investment posture, meaning the business does not yet clear the bar that would support a full position even at an attractive valuation. Warnings | Quality composite improves above the minimum floor within two quarters, driven by improved cash conversion or operating margin expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score sits very close to the floor; a modest improvement in free cash flow conversion could push it above the threshold, at which point the deep valuation discount would become far more actionable. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, indicating that the longer-term trend has not yet turned constructive; price momentum remains soft and does not confirm the bullish fundamental and valuation case. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses and sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 20 consecutive trading days, confirming a trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation is rising despite the price weakness, which can be a leading indicator of institutional buying ahead of a trend reversal; the technical picture may lag rather than lead the fundamental recovery. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 23% of reported net income—flagged as a quality red flag—meaning the wide gap between stated earnings and actual cash generation raises serious questions about whether the reported profits are a reliable measure of economic performance.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% for two consecutive reporting periods, narrowing the gap between reported and cash earnings.
CounterThe Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 and a current ratio of 5.5 indicate the balance sheet is not in distress; the FCF shortfall may reflect a temporary working-capital or investment phase rather than a structural earnings quality problem.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 7.4 times and with analysts implying 43.6% upside to the consensus price target, the stock screens as attractively valued on both an absolute and a peer-relative basis, with a price-to-earnings ratio among the most compelling in the peer group.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price appreciates at least 25% toward the analyst target within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterA low multiple can persist or compress further when quality is impaired; a business generating free cash flow at only 23% of net income may deserve a discounted multiple, and the 43.6% implied upside may require a quality improvement catalyst to be realized.
The overall quality composite sits just below the minimum threshold required for a standard investment posture, meaning the business does not yet clear the bar that would support a full position even at an attractive valuation.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality composite improves above the minimum floor within two quarters, driven by improved cash conversion or operating margin expansion.
CounterThe quality score sits very close to the floor; a modest improvement in free cash flow conversion could push it above the threshold, at which point the deep valuation discount would become far more actionable.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, indicating that the longer-term trend has not yet turned constructive; price momentum remains soft and does not confirm the bullish fundamental and valuation case.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses and sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 20 consecutive trading days, confirming a trend reversal.
CounterVolume accumulation is rising despite the price weakness, which can be a leading indicator of institutional buying ahead of a trend reversal; the technical picture may lag rather than lead the fundamental recovery.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 1.9 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 23% FCF/NI
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 54%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 1101.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:46d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.19
Upside
+38.5%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Sentiment at 8.0, and Peer rank at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Momentum at 3.6, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 7.4 times and with analysts implying 43.6% upside to the consensus price target, the stock screens as attractively valued on both an absolute and a peer-relative basis, with a price-to-earnings ratio among the most compelling in the peer group.
Trip ifForward EPS estimates are cut by more than 25%, removing the attractively valued designation by pushing the implied multiple above 10x.
- P2Free cash flow represents only 23% of reported net income—flagged as a quality red flag—meaning the wide gap between stated earnings and actual cash generation raises serious questions about whether the reported profits are a reliable measure of economic performance.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3The overall quality composite sits just below the minimum threshold required for a standard investment posture, meaning the business does not yet clear the bar that would support a full position even at an attractive valuation.
Trip ifQuality composite score rises above 4.0, clearing the minimum threshold within 2 quarters.
- P4The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, indicating that the longer-term trend has not yet turned constructive; price momentum remains soft and does not confirm the bullish fundamental and valuation case.
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and holds for more than 20 consecutive trading days.