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JBGSJBG SMITH PropertiesSell3.9·$11.48-2.79%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

JBG Smith trades at a moderate FFO-based valuation and remains free-cash-flow positive, but quality screens below the minimum bar, the stated risk/reward has turned negative after the stock reached its price target, and momentum still shows a confirmed downtrend with elevated short interest.

Thesis pillars

  • Moderate Ffo ValuationStable
  • Positive Free Cash Flow GenerationStable
  • Negative Asymmetry Target ReachedDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.48: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality.

JBG SMITH Properties owns, operates, and develops mixed-use properties concentrated in amenity-rich, Metro-served submarkets in and around Washington, DC, most notably National Landing, where through our focus on placemaking, we cultivate vibrant, highly amenitized, walkable... Read more

$11.48-3.7% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#13 of 13 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield28.14%
IncomeYield6.10%(5y avg 4.47%)Payout101.09%
Stop $10.68Target $14.34(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$13.00+13.2%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.48: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16

Recent Developments — JBG SMITH Properties

Generated 2026-08-16T21:22:07Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202678d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-7.0
Mkt Cap$887M
EV/EBITDA19.2
Profit Mgn-30.0%
ROE-10.9%
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta1.06
Dividend6.10%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C15.00bearish
IV147%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.9
Debt Equity
3.7
Beta
6.8
High short interest justified: 26%Elevated put/call: 15.00High IV: 147%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -30.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.2
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.4
Gross Margin
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 49%, FCF yield 28.1%)No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
9.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.8
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.4
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.61Resistance $14.63

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside-3.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JBGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.48: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $10.68. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the JBGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.34 (-3.7% upside). Prior stop was $10.68. Stop-loss: $10.68.

What are the risks of investing in JBGS?

Target reached (-3.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is JBGS overvalued or undervalued?

JBG SMITH Properties trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JBGS?

8 analysts cover JBGS with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does JBG SMITH Properties do?JBG SMITH Properties owns, operates, and develops mixed-use properties concentrated in amenity-rich, Metro-served...

JBG SMITH Properties owns, operates, and develops mixed-use properties concentrated in amenity-rich, Metro-served submarkets in and around Washington, DC, most notably National Landing, where through our focus on placemaking, we cultivate vibrant, highly amenitized, walkable neighborhoods. JBG SMITH's portfolio comprises 12.0 million square feet at share of multifamily, office, and retail assets, and a 3.3 million square-foot development pipeline. JBG SMITH Properties was established in 2016 and was incorporated in Maryland.

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