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Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. At $40.05, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak).

Inspire Medical Systems is a medical technology company that makes the Inspire system, the only FDA-approved closed-loop neurostimulation therapy for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea, treating over 125,000 patients. Revenue is generated by selling the implantable... Read more

$40.05+15.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#30 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.42%
Stop $38.42Target $46.40(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$53.33+33.2%12 analysts
$46.40our TP
$40.05price
$53.33mean
$65

Sell if holding. At $40.05, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 19, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system
Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)30.4
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA13.4
Profit Mgn14.3%
ROE18.4%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductInspire system
    10-K Item 1A: 'our dependency on our Inspire system for revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan at the May 7, 2026 Annual Meeting, authorizing 18,793,516 shares. Compensatory arrangement for executives; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.1
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
19 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.61Resistance $58.53

Price Targets

$38
$46
A.Upside+15.9%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 30x vs trail 9x (3.3x)
! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INSP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $40.05, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 19, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $38.42. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INSP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.40 (+15.9% upside). Prior stop was $38.42. Stop-loss: $38.42.

What are the risks of investing in INSP?

Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5.

Is INSP overvalued or undervalued?

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 30.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about INSP?

25 analysts cover INSP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. do?Inspire Medical Systems is a medical technology company that makes the Inspire system, the only FDA-approved...

Inspire Medical Systems is a medical technology company that makes the Inspire system, the only FDA-approved closed-loop neurostimulation therapy for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea, treating over 125,000 patients. Revenue is generated by selling the implantable system to hospitals and ASCs in the US and select European markets through a direct sales force; Japan and Singapore use distributors. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated 295 US and 21 international sales territories.

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