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Insmed Incorporated (INSM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $135.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI.

Insmed is a global biopharmaceutical company with two commercial products: ARIKAYCE for MAC lung disease (approved in US, Europe, Japan) and BRINSUPRI for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (approved US August 2025, EU November 2025), plus clinical programs in respiratory,... Read more

$135.83+40.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#73 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $128.59Target $191.43(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.6:1
Analyst target$212.70+56.6%20 analysts
$191.43our TP
$135.83price
$212.70mean
$243

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $135.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 41%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)181.3
Mkt Cap$29.1B
EV/EBITDA-29.0
Profit Mgn-210.5%
ROE-249.3%
Rev Growth152.6%
Beta1.10
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.95bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$300+120.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects are highly dependent on the success of our approved products, ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Director David W.J. McGirr notified Insmed Board he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. He will continue serving as Board member and Audit Committee chair until the Annual Meeting. No disagreement with Company on any matter.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
8.9
Industry growth leader

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 7 days

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Peg Ratio
4.9
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 181.3xPEG: 1.62Expensive valuation

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $132.57Resistance $166.19

Price Targets

$129
$191
A.Upside+40.9%
A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $135.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $128.59. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $191.43 (+40.8% upside). Prior stop was $128.59. Stop-loss: $128.59.

What are the risks of investing in INSM?

Concentration risk — Product: ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is INSM overvalued or undervalued?

Insmed Incorporated trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 181.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about INSM?

26 analysts cover INSM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $213.

What does Insmed Incorporated do?Insmed is a global biopharmaceutical company with two commercial products: ARIKAYCE for MAC lung disease (approved in...

Insmed is a global biopharmaceutical company with two commercial products: ARIKAYCE for MAC lung disease (approved in US, Europe, Japan) and BRINSUPRI for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (approved US August 2025, EU November 2025), plus clinical programs in respiratory, immunology, and rare neurology. Revenue is generated primarily from ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI sales to specialty pharmacies and healthcare providers.

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