Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
IFF · Why this verdict
Why International Flavors & Fragran (IFF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company's technical setup has turned constructive — golden-cross formation, rising volume accumulation, RSI at 57, three beats in the last four quarters — yet revenue has been contracting approximately 4% year-over-year, the business lacks a competitive moat, and the reward-to-risk ratio is below 1-to-1 at current prices, making the setup unattractive for new buyers even as near-term price momentum improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden-cross formation, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume signal improving demand for the shares, but with the stock sitting only approximately 5% below its analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1-to-1, the technical setup offers limited margin of error for new positions entered at current levels. Momentum breakdown | Analyst consensus price target is revised above $95, expanding potential upside beyond 20% from current levels and improving the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterIn an early-stage momentum recovery, price can re-rate before analyst targets are formally raised, making the current target ceiling less binding than it appears; if the golden cross and rising volume hold, the stock may force upward estimate revisions rather than waiting for them. | ||
Revenue has declined approximately 4% year-over-year, leaving the company in contraction territory rather than on the recovery trajectory needed to close the gap between current earnings and analyst targets; absent top-line growth, margin improvement alone is unlikely to drive a sustained re-rating. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the contraction has bottomed. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declines in specialty chemicals can reflect deliberate portfolio pruning of lower-margin product lines rather than a loss of demand; if mix shifts toward higher-value formulations, a flat or declining top line could coexist with improving operating margins and earnings quality. | ||
Free cash flow is running at approximately 448% of reported net income — an unusually high conversion rate that likely reflects significant non-cash charges suppressing accounting earnings relative to actual cash generated — yet analysts have identified no competitive moat, meaning this cash-generation advantage may not be defensible over a multi-year horizon. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% for four consecutive quarters, sustaining the conversion advantage even as revenue trends improve. | →Stable |
| CounterAn FCF-to-net-income ratio at 448% is unlikely to persist; when non-cash charges normalize or acquisition-related amortization winds down, the ratio could compress dramatically, making the current cash-flow screen misleading as a forward indicator. | ||
The company has beaten sell-side consensus in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise near 5%; however, this track record is offset by forward estimates trending lower, suggesting that some of the apparent beat frequency reflects a declining consensus bar rather than accelerating business performance. Earnings | Forward earnings estimates stabilize or rise over the next two quarters and the company delivers a positive surprise of more than 5% against the stabilized bar, decoupling the beat streak from estimate cuts. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling estimates after positive surprises is a common pattern in turnaround names where analysts over-correct; if the company continues to beat even at the lower bar, repeated positive surprises against rising expectations could eventually catalyze a meaningful re-rating. | ||
A golden-cross formation, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume signal improving demand for the shares, but with the stock sitting only approximately 5% below its analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1-to-1, the technical setup offers limited margin of error for new positions entered at current levels.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised above $95, expanding potential upside beyond 20% from current levels and improving the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1.
CounterIn an early-stage momentum recovery, price can re-rate before analyst targets are formally raised, making the current target ceiling less binding than it appears; if the golden cross and rising volume hold, the stock may force upward estimate revisions rather than waiting for them.
Revenue has declined approximately 4% year-over-year, leaving the company in contraction territory rather than on the recovery trajectory needed to close the gap between current earnings and analyst targets; absent top-line growth, margin improvement alone is unlikely to drive a sustained re-rating.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the contraction has bottomed.
CounterRevenue declines in specialty chemicals can reflect deliberate portfolio pruning of lower-margin product lines rather than a loss of demand; if mix shifts toward higher-value formulations, a flat or declining top line could coexist with improving operating margins and earnings quality.
Free cash flow is running at approximately 448% of reported net income — an unusually high conversion rate that likely reflects significant non-cash charges suppressing accounting earnings relative to actual cash generated — yet analysts have identified no competitive moat, meaning this cash-generation advantage may not be defensible over a multi-year horizon.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% for four consecutive quarters, sustaining the conversion advantage even as revenue trends improve.
CounterAn FCF-to-net-income ratio at 448% is unlikely to persist; when non-cash charges normalize or acquisition-related amortization winds down, the ratio could compress dramatically, making the current cash-flow screen misleading as a forward indicator.
The company has beaten sell-side consensus in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise near 5%; however, this track record is offset by forward estimates trending lower, suggesting that some of the apparent beat frequency reflects a declining consensus bar rather than accelerating business performance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates stabilize or rise over the next two quarters and the company delivers a positive surprise of more than 5% against the stabilized bar, decoupling the beat streak from estimate cuts.
CounterFalling estimates after positive surprises is a common pattern in turnaround names where analysts over-correct; if the company continues to beat even at the lower bar, repeated positive surprises against rising expectations could eventually catalyze a meaningful re-rating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 448% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $20,317,854 (0.105% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.66
Upside
+9.1%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.0, Value at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Peer rank at 2.8, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue has declined approximately 4% year-over-year, leaving the company in contraction territory rather than on the recovery trajectory needed to close the gap between current earnings and analyst targets; absent top-line growth, margin improvement alone is unlikely to drive a sustained re-rating.
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Free cash flow is running at approximately 448% of reported net income — an unusually high conversion rate that likely reflects significant non-cash charges suppressing accounting earnings relative to actual cash generated — yet analysts have identified no competitive moat, meaning this cash-generation advantage may not be defensible over a multi-year horizon.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The company has beaten sell-side consensus in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise near 5%; however, this track record is offset by forward estimates trending lower, suggesting that some of the apparent beat frequency reflects a declining consensus bar rather than accelerating business performance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4A golden-cross formation, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume signal improving demand for the shares, but with the stock sitting only approximately 5% below its analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1-to-1, the technical setup offers limited margin of error for new positions entered at current levels.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised above $95, creating more than 20% upside from current levels.