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Ichor Holdings (ICHR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Ichor Holdings designs and manufactures fluid delivery subsystems and components primarily for semiconductor capital equipment OEMs, generating $947.7 million in revenue in 2025. Long-standing relationships with top-tier OEM customers Lam Research, Applied Materials, and ASML... Read more

$64.35+10.7% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#22 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Stop $59.98Target $71.41(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$56.29-12.5%7 analysts
$71.41our TP
$64.35price
$56.29mean
$36
$82

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Lam Research and Applied Materials (76.0%)
Target reached (-24.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)28.0
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA92.0
Profit Mgn-5.6%
ROE-7.7%
Rev Growth-4.2%
Beta1.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.45bullish
IV135%elevated
Max Pain$5-92.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerLam Research and Applied Materials76%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two customers with individual sales over 10%, Lam Research and Applied Materials, accounted for a combined 76% of total sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
9.8
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 4 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
2.4
Value Rank
8.8
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.43Resistance $72.87

Price Targets

$60
$71
A.Upside+11.0%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-24.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ICHR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $59.98. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ICHR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.41 (+10.7% upside). Prior stop was $59.98. Stop-loss: $59.98.

What are the risks of investing in ICHR?

Concentration risk — Customer: Lam Research and Applied Materials (76.0%); Target reached (-24.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is ICHR overvalued or undervalued?

Ichor Holdings trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ICHR?

13 analysts cover ICHR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $56.

What does Ichor Holdings do?Ichor Holdings designs and manufactures fluid delivery subsystems and components primarily for semiconductor capital...

Ichor Holdings designs and manufactures fluid delivery subsystems and components primarily for semiconductor capital equipment OEMs, generating $947.7 million in revenue in 2025. Long-standing relationships with top-tier OEM customers Lam Research, Applied Materials, and ASML drove the majority of sales.

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