Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
ICFI · Why this verdict
Why ICF International (ICFI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A forward earnings multiple of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14 frame an inexpensive consulting business with 24% upside to analyst targets, but three consecutive quarters of earnings misses and a 10% revenue contraction suggest the valuation discount reflects genuine operational deterioration rather than temporary mispricing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year, signaling that consulting demand conditions or the company's competitive positioning have meaningfully weakened, limiting the operating leverage available to improve margins from current low levels. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth turns positive — above 0% — in the next reported quarter, indicating the contraction has reached a bottom. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation visible in rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest that market participants may be positioning for a business inflection ahead of what the trailing revenue data currently shows. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 24% upside to the $89.46 price target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.6-to-1. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes at least 15% of the gap to its $89.46 analyst target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward peer multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple with a 0.14 PEG is appealing in isolation, but three consecutive earnings misses and contracting revenue suggest the earnings denominator may be declining — which would push the effective forward multiple higher and make the current price appear less inexpensive than it screens. | ||
The three most recent quarters produced earnings misses of -3.2%, -1.5%, and -3.7% respectively, establishing a consecutive miss pattern that indicates the business is consistently delivering below analyst expectations. Earnings | The next quarterly report delivers a positive earnings surprise above 3%, breaking the miss streak and signaling an operational reset. | →Stable |
| CounterThe magnitude of each miss is modest — less than 4% — suggesting these may reflect minor execution variability rather than structural deterioration; the single prior beat of +5.2% demonstrated the business can outperform when conditions align. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.50 — well above neutral — indicates that options market participants are positioned bearishly, implying significant institutional skepticism about the near-term outlook and creating a technical overhang on the stock. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within two quarters, reflecting a reduction in hedging pressure as the fundamental picture clarifies. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in smaller-capitalization names can sometimes represent hedging by existing long holders rather than outright short bets; if the company begins to beat estimates, put holders may exit rapidly, providing a technical tailwind. | ||
Revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year, signaling that consulting demand conditions or the company's competitive positioning have meaningfully weakened, limiting the operating leverage available to improve margins from current low levels.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth turns positive — above 0% — in the next reported quarter, indicating the contraction has reached a bottom.
CounterVolume accumulation visible in rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest that market participants may be positioning for a business inflection ahead of what the trailing revenue data currently shows.
At a forward P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 24% upside to the $89.46 price target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.6-to-1.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least 15% of the gap to its $89.46 analyst target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward peer multiples.
CounterA low multiple with a 0.14 PEG is appealing in isolation, but three consecutive earnings misses and contracting revenue suggest the earnings denominator may be declining — which would push the effective forward multiple higher and make the current price appear less inexpensive than it screens.
The three most recent quarters produced earnings misses of -3.2%, -1.5%, and -3.7% respectively, establishing a consecutive miss pattern that indicates the business is consistently delivering below analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next quarterly report delivers a positive earnings surprise above 3%, breaking the miss streak and signaling an operational reset.
CounterThe magnitude of each miss is modest — less than 4% — suggesting these may reflect minor execution variability rather than structural deterioration; the single prior beat of +5.2% demonstrated the business can outperform when conditions align.
A put/call ratio of 2.50 — well above neutral — indicates that options market participants are positioned bearishly, implying significant institutional skepticism about the near-term outlook and creating a technical overhang on the stock.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within two quarters, reflecting a reduction in hedging pressure as the fundamental picture clarifies.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in smaller-capitalization names can sometimes represent hedging by existing long holders rather than outright short bets; if the company begins to beat estimates, put holders may exit rapidly, providing a technical tailwind.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 55%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $491,134 (0.040% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 82.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.19
Upside
+31.4%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.0, Momentum at 3.1, and Catalyst at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a forward P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 24% upside to the $89.46 price target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.6-to-1.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x from the current 9.4x, reducing the stated valuation discount to peers.
- P2The three most recent quarters produced earnings misses of -3.2%, -1.5%, and -3.7% respectively, establishing a consecutive miss pattern that indicates the business is consistently delivering below analyst expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 3% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the miss streak.
- P3Revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year, signaling that consulting demand conditions or the company's competitive positioning have meaningfully weakened, limiting the operating leverage available to improve margins from current low levels.
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the contraction.
- P4A put/call ratio of 2.50 — well above neutral — indicates that options market participants are positioned bearishly, implying significant institutional skepticism about the near-term outlook and creating a technical overhang on the stock.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive months, indicating that bearish hedging pressure has substantially resolved.