Value
2.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.5 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.56
- ▸Expensive valuation
IBKR · Why this verdict
Why Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The business operates a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat and strong margins, but the stock has effectively reached its resistance target, leaving near-zero upside against meaningful downside — the risk/reward geometry currently does not support new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 32.2 times and a PEG ratio of 2.50, the shares screen expensive, limiting margin of safety if earnings growth decelerates even modestly. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple compresses toward 22 times if earnings growth does not materially accelerate, closing the valuation gap to peers. | →Stable |
| CounterA franchise with a wide economic moat can sustain a premium multiple for extended periods when earnings momentum remains intact, and the market may continue pricing quality at a premium. | ||
The company demonstrates a wide economic moat, net margins near 16%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting a durable competitive position and returns profile that has historically held through different market environments. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains above 14% and return on equity stays in double-digit territory over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterLeverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 reduces the cushion if market volumes or interest income soften, and franchise quality alone does not shield the share price when valuation is already stretched. | ||
The company delivered an in-line result in the most recent quarter, preceded by three consecutive quarterly beats — with a new report approximately 28 days away that has historically served as a positive catalyst. Earnings | The upcoming quarterly report produces a positive earnings surprise, resuming outperformance after the most recent in-line print. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter came in line with consensus rather than ahead, suggesting estimates have caught up to underlying performance and further positive surprises may not materialize. | ||
The stock has reached its technical resistance target, leaving only 0.1% headroom to the upside against approximately 7% potential downside — an asymmetry that has inverted and does not justify initiating or adding to a position at current levels. Price targets | If the underlying setup remains constructive, the stock breaks decisively above resistance and re-establishes upside headroom of more than 8% to a new target. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality compounders in sustained uptrends often pause at prior resistance before continuing higher, making the current level a consolidation point rather than a terminal barrier. | ||
At a forward P/E of 32.2 times and a PEG ratio of 2.50, the shares screen expensive, limiting margin of safety if earnings growth decelerates even modestly.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple compresses toward 22 times if earnings growth does not materially accelerate, closing the valuation gap to peers.
CounterA franchise with a wide economic moat can sustain a premium multiple for extended periods when earnings momentum remains intact, and the market may continue pricing quality at a premium.
The company demonstrates a wide economic moat, net margins near 16%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting a durable competitive position and returns profile that has historically held through different market environments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above 14% and return on equity stays in double-digit territory over the next four quarters.
CounterLeverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 reduces the cushion if market volumes or interest income soften, and franchise quality alone does not shield the share price when valuation is already stretched.
The company delivered an in-line result in the most recent quarter, preceded by three consecutive quarterly beats — with a new report approximately 28 days away that has historically served as a positive catalyst.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The upcoming quarterly report produces a positive earnings surprise, resuming outperformance after the most recent in-line print.
CounterThe most recent quarter came in line with consensus rather than ahead, suggesting estimates have caught up to underlying performance and further positive surprises may not materialize.
The stock has reached its technical resistance target, leaving only 0.1% headroom to the upside against approximately 7% potential downside — an asymmetry that has inverted and does not justify initiating or adding to a position at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the underlying setup remains constructive, the stock breaks decisively above resistance and re-establishes upside headroom of more than 8% to a new target.
CounterHigh-quality compounders in sustained uptrends often pause at prior resistance before continuing higher, making the current level a consolidation point rather than a terminal barrier.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.9 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.58 (n=3)
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,994,327 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 38.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.21
Upside
-18.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 19d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.21 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.2, Growth at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Value at 2.7, Peer rank at 2.9, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company demonstrates a wide economic moat, net margins near 16%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting a durable competitive position and returns profile that has historically held through different market environments.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 13% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company delivered an in-line result in the most recent quarter, preceded by three consecutive quarterly beats — with a new report approximately 28 days away that has historically served as a positive catalyst.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters following the current in-line result.
- P3At a forward P/E of 32.2 times and a PEG ratio of 2.50, the shares screen expensive, limiting margin of safety if earnings growth decelerates even modestly.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x, indicating the valuation headwind has resolved.
- P4The stock has reached its technical resistance target, leaving only 0.1% headroom to the upside against approximately 7% potential downside — an asymmetry that has inverted and does not justify initiating or adding to a position at current levels.
Trip ifUpside to the price target expands beyond 8% from current levels, indicating a sustained breakout above the $92.84 resistance ceiling.