Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
HLNE · Why this verdict
Why Hamilton Lane (HLNE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hamilton Lane is a high-quality asset manager with strong margins, a four-quarter earnings beat streak, and a deeply discounted valuation — but a confirmed death cross and declining revenue create meaningful near-term headwinds that must resolve before the full value proposition can be captured.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average quarterly beat running roughly 23 percentage points above consensus — a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that suggests disciplined guidance practices. Earnings | Average EPS beat remains above 5% and no quarterly misses occur over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has been declining at approximately 2% annually; if fee income continues contracting, future earnings estimates will be set at lower levels, reducing the room to beat and potentially ending the streak. | ||
The business generates a 32% return on equity, sustains 33% net margins, and converts 122% of net income into free cash flow — a combination reflecting strong capital efficiency and earnings quality within asset management. Quality breakdown | Net margin holds above 30% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining at roughly 2% annually; sustained top-line contraction can erode even strong margin structures over time if fee income is under pressure, making margin maintenance increasingly dependent on cost discipline rather than growth. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 11 times with a PEG of 0.44, and analysts' consensus target implies about 44% headroom from the current price — producing a risk/reward ratio of more than 6-to-1 in favor of the long. Price targets | The share price advances at least 20% toward the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterThe upside case assumes earnings momentum holds; if revenue decline accelerates, consensus estimates will be revised lower, compressing the target and shrinking the apparent discount. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope falling roughly 8% over the prior 30 days, RSI near 33, and a death cross has formed — a configuration that typically limits near-term price recovery even for fundamentally sound businesses. Warnings | The stock should cross back above its 200-day moving average and hold there for at least 4 consecutive weeks over the next 12 months to confirm the technical headwind has lifted. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation (rising OBV) and a deeply discounted forward multiple could attract buyers at current levels before the moving-average structure fully repairs, shortening the duration of the downward pressure. | ||
The business has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average quarterly beat running roughly 23 percentage points above consensus — a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that suggests disciplined guidance practices.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS beat remains above 5% and no quarterly misses occur over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue has been declining at approximately 2% annually; if fee income continues contracting, future earnings estimates will be set at lower levels, reducing the room to beat and potentially ending the streak.
The business generates a 32% return on equity, sustains 33% net margins, and converts 122% of net income into free cash flow — a combination reflecting strong capital efficiency and earnings quality within asset management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin holds above 30% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue is declining at roughly 2% annually; sustained top-line contraction can erode even strong margin structures over time if fee income is under pressure, making margin maintenance increasingly dependent on cost discipline rather than growth.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 11 times with a PEG of 0.44, and analysts' consensus target implies about 44% headroom from the current price — producing a risk/reward ratio of more than 6-to-1 in favor of the long.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The share price advances at least 20% toward the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterThe upside case assumes earnings momentum holds; if revenue decline accelerates, consensus estimates will be revised lower, compressing the target and shrinking the apparent discount.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope falling roughly 8% over the prior 30 days, RSI near 33, and a death cross has formed — a configuration that typically limits near-term price recovery even for fundamentally sound businesses.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock should cross back above its 200-day moving average and hold there for at least 4 consecutive weeks over the next 12 months to confirm the technical headwind has lifted.
CounterVolume accumulation (rising OBV) and a deeply discounted forward multiple could attract buyers at current levels before the moving-average structure fully repairs, shortening the duration of the downward pressure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 32%
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 122% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.9 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.58 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 81%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.86
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $50
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 325.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.19
Upside
+57.3%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.9) with weak momentum (1.1)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.9; weakest: Momentum at 1.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.9, Value at 8.4, and Sentiment at 8.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average quarterly beat running roughly 23 percentage points above consensus — a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that suggests disciplined guidance practices.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The business generates a 32% return on equity, sustains 33% net margins, and converts 122% of net income into free cash flow — a combination reflecting strong capital efficiency and earnings quality within asset management.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 11 times with a PEG of 0.44, and analysts' consensus target implies about 44% headroom from the current price — producing a risk/reward ratio of more than 6-to-1 in favor of the long.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target compresses below $82 in 2 consecutive quarterly revisions.
- P4The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope falling roughly 8% over the prior 30 days, RSI near 33, and a death cross has formed — a configuration that typically limits near-term price recovery even for fundamentally sound businesses.
Trip ifRSI rises above 50 and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive for 2 consecutive months.