Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
HIG · Why this verdict
Why The Hartford Insurance Group, I (HIG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hartford screens as a high-quality compounder — a wide economic moat, a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score, and a forward P/E of 9.2x at a PEG of 0.22 — but the stock has nearly closed the gap to the analyst consensus target, leaving only about 2.4% headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio well below the threshold needed to justify adding; the setup favors holding an existing position rather than initiating.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.22, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, offering quality at a price the market appears to be under-appreciating. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple re-rates toward the mid-teens over 12 months as the quality and growth combination gains broader market recognition. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has nearly reached analyst targets, suggesting the valuation re-rating may be largely complete; with only about 2.4% to the consensus target, the multiple may already reflect fair value rather than a meaningful discount. | ||
The business exhibits compounder-level quality with a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and free cash flow running at 138% of net income, indicating consistent, high-quality earnings that translate reliably into cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow continues to exceed net income and return on equity remains at or above current levels for the next 4 quarters, confirming the durability of the competitive advantage. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance moats are difficult to assess precisely; if underwriting margins deteriorate through an adverse claims cycle or competitive pricing pressure softens premiums, the quality profile could erode faster than a structural moat would suggest. | ||
Hartford has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 14%, signaling consistent execution that has outpaced street expectations across a range of underwriting environments. Earnings | The beat streak extends through the next two reporting periods, with average quarterly EPS surprise remaining above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 9% after three consecutive strong beats, suggesting estimates may have caught up to the earnings run-rate; sustaining further beats requires either continued earnings growth or deliberate guidance management. | ||
An exclusive licensing arrangement with a single large counterparty represents a high concentration risk flagged in filings, where a change in that relationship could materially impair the revenue and distribution model. Bear case | The company discloses renewal or extension of the exclusive arrangement on favorable terms, reducing near-term counterparty tail risk. | →Stable |
| CounterThe exclusive relationship may represent a durable, high-value distribution moat rather than a fragile dependency; if the counterparty derives significant value from the arrangement, switching costs and exit barriers make renewal highly probable. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.22, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, offering quality at a price the market appears to be under-appreciating.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple re-rates toward the mid-teens over 12 months as the quality and growth combination gains broader market recognition.
CounterThe stock has nearly reached analyst targets, suggesting the valuation re-rating may be largely complete; with only about 2.4% to the consensus target, the multiple may already reflect fair value rather than a meaningful discount.
The business exhibits compounder-level quality with a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and free cash flow running at 138% of net income, indicating consistent, high-quality earnings that translate reliably into cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow continues to exceed net income and return on equity remains at or above current levels for the next 4 quarters, confirming the durability of the competitive advantage.
CounterInsurance moats are difficult to assess precisely; if underwriting margins deteriorate through an adverse claims cycle or competitive pricing pressure softens premiums, the quality profile could erode faster than a structural moat would suggest.
Hartford has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 14%, signaling consistent execution that has outpaced street expectations across a range of underwriting environments.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends through the next two reporting periods, with average quarterly EPS surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 9% after three consecutive strong beats, suggesting estimates may have caught up to the earnings run-rate; sustaining further beats requires either continued earnings growth or deliberate guidance management.
An exclusive licensing arrangement with a single large counterparty represents a high concentration risk flagged in filings, where a change in that relationship could materially impair the revenue and distribution model.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company discloses renewal or extension of the exclusive arrangement on favorable terms, reducing near-term counterparty tail risk.
CounterThe exclusive relationship may represent a durable, high-value distribution moat rather than a fragile dependency; if the counterparty derives significant value from the arrangement, switching costs and exit barriers make renewal highly probable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 7.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 138% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 8.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $115
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 181.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.02
Upside
+0.1%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.4; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 6.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business exhibits compounder-level quality with a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and free cash flow running at 138% of net income, indicating consistent, high-quality earnings that translate reliably into cash.
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the cash conversion advantage is eroding.
- P2Hartford has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 14%, signaling consistent execution that has outpaced street expectations across a range of underwriting environments.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the consistency of the beat pattern.
- P3At a forward P/E of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.22, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, offering quality at a price the market appears to be under-appreciating.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x on flat or declining earnings estimates over 12 months, eliminating the valuation discount.
- P4An exclusive licensing arrangement with a single large counterparty represents a high concentration risk flagged in filings, where a change in that relationship could materially impair the revenue and distribution model.
Trip ifThe AARP exclusive licensing arrangement is renewed for a term exceeding 3 years, removing the near-term counterparty concentration risk.