Great Southern Bancorp combines a strong earnings beat streak and bullish technical breakout with several concerning factors - a price target already reached, a failed asymmetry gate, weak growth, and notable insider selling - consistent with the recommendation to consider reducing the position ahead of its earnings report in 11 days.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Growth No Moat↑Improving
- Target Reached Limited Upside↑Improving
- Negative Asymmetry Gate Failure→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $79.25 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate, construction, and other commercial loans (78.3%).
Great Southern Bancorp is the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank, which operates 88 full-service retail banking offices across Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Arkansas, and Nebraska. The bank held $5.60 billion in total assets, $4.36 billion in net loans, and $4.48... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $79.25 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate, construction, and other commercial loans (78.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.
About Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.
Great Southern Bancorp held $5.60 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025, funded by $4.48 billion in deposits and supported by $636.1 million in stockholders' equity, operating 88 full-service retail banking offices across six states including Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Arkansas, and Nebraska. Great Southern Bank, the company's primary subsidiary, is regulated by the FDIC and reported net loans of $4.36 billion.
Great Southern earns net interest income by originating commercial real estate, construction, multi-family, and residential loans, funding them through retail deposits, brokered certificates of deposit, and advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines. Commercial real estate, construction, and other commercial loans together made up 78.3% of the total loan portfolio at December 31, 2025, while one- to four-family residential loans accounted for approximately 18%. The bank's largest deposit and loan concentrations sit in the Springfield and St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan areas, with additional loan exposure built through commercial loan production offices in Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, and Phoenix. Brokered deposits totaled $663.4 million and overnight Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings totaled $333.0 million at December 31, 2025, supplementing the bank's branch-gathered deposit base. Approximately 66% of the total loan portfolio carries adjustable interest rates, tying net interest income to the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Show full overview
Great Southern's loan book carries geographic concentration risk beyond its home state: approximately $500.7 million, or 11.3% of the total loan portfolio, is commercial real estate secured by properties in Texas, originated through the Dallas loan production office, while St. Louis-area apartment and commercial real estate loans represent a further 16.0%, or $709.3 million. Because neither exposure is offset by an in-market retail deposit franchise of comparable size, a downturn concentrated in either the Dallas or St. Louis commercial property market could pressure asset quality without a corresponding funding-cost benefit from local deposit growth.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-25Recent Developments — Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS GREAT SOUTHERN BAN ($GSBC) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS GSBC Reports Strong Q2 Performance and Financial Metrics - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Great Southern Bancorp reports preliminary Q2 EPS $1.43, consensus $1.38 - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS Great Southern Bancorp 2Q Adj EPS $1.57 >GSBC - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-07-25T10:07:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate, construction, and other commercial loans78%10-K Item 1A: 'Our commercial and other residential (multi-family) construction, commercial real estate, other residential (multi-family) and other commercial loans accounted for approximately 78.3% of our total loan portfolio as of December 31, 2025.'
- MEDIUMGeographicMissouri, Iowa, Kansas and Minnesota10-K Item 1A: 'Since our business is primarily concentrated in Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Minnesota, a significant downturn in these state or local economies...'
- LOWGeographicTexas11%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately $500.7 million, or 11.3%, of our loan portfolio consisted of loans primarily for various types of commercial real estate in Texas'
- LOWloan_portfoliobrokered deposits and FHLBank advances10-K Item 1A: 'we have from time to time utilized a sizable amount of certificates of deposit obtained through deposit brokers and advances from the FHLBank to help fund our asset base'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWAt the May 13, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders approved Great Southern's 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan. Routine compensatory plan approval, not a director/officer departure; no successor or departure involved.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-15Item 5.07LOWAt the May 13, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders elected four directors (Ausburn, Counts, Edwards, Pitt) to three-year terms and approved, on an advisory basis, executive compensation. Routine annual meeting vote results.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $79.25 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate, construction, and other commercial loans (78.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $73.85. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.75 (-18.5% upside). Prior stop was $73.85. Stop-loss: $73.85.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate, construction, and other commercial loans (78.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away).
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover GSBC with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $76.
What does Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. do?Great Southern Bancorp is the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank, which operates 88 full-service retail...
Great Southern Bancorp is the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank, which operates 88 full-service retail banking offices across Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Arkansas, and Nebraska. The bank held $5.60 billion in total assets, $4.36 billion in net loans, and $4.48 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, earning net interest income primarily from commercial real estate, construction, and multi-family lending funded by retail and brokered deposits.