Value
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
GENI · Why this verdict
Why Genius Sports (GENI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Genius Sports is the industry's top revenue grower at 30% year over year with a forward earnings multiple of 7.1x and 33% upside to the analyst price target, but business quality at 2.0 out of 10 sits well below any credible investment floor and three of four recent quarters ended in deep earnings misses — the growth is real, the business durability is not yet established.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality sits at 2.0 out of 10 — the lowest possible rating — with gross margins near zero, negative operating and net margins, and no competitive moat identified, meaning the company is growing revenue while generating near-zero returns on that growth. Warnings | Quality recovers above 4.0 as gross and operating margins improve materially over at least two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFor an early-stage platform business investing heavily in customer acquisition and data infrastructure, weak near-term margins may be the expected cost of building scale; if the platform economics improve with scale, the quality rating could inflect from this low base. | ||
Revenue is growing at 30% year over year with strong earnings growth, and the company ranks as the industry growth leader among its peer group — a rate of expansion that trades at a forward earnings multiple of 7.1x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.03. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays at or above 20% year over year for the next two reported quarters, confirming that the top-line expansion is durable rather than a one-period spike. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of four recent quarters ended in earnings misses averaging roughly 255% below estimates, suggesting the company is growing revenue while burning through far more than expected at the bottom line; growth without earnings conversion may not re-rate the multiple. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters, with an average shortfall of roughly 255% below consensus, indicating a wide and persistent gap between management guidance and actual results. Earnings | The miss pattern reverses — EPS surprise turns positive for at least 2 consecutive quarters — demonstrating that the gap between guidance and delivery has closed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a beat of roughly 65%, suggesting the trajectory may be improving; a single beat after a string of misses could mark the beginning of a guidance recalibration rather than a continuation of chronic underdelivery. | ||
An elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.00 alongside implied volatility of 127% and an RSI of 75 — a technically overbought reading — suggests the recent price recovery may be outpacing the fundamental progress, creating a risk of a sharp pullback. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio compresses below 1.5 and the RSI normalizes below 65, indicating the options-market risk premium has unwound and the overbought condition has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put activity in a recovering small-capitalization name can reflect protective hedges placed by early investors rather than new directional bets; the rising on-balance volume and improving MACD suggest accumulation is underway alongside the hedging activity. | ||
Business quality sits at 2.0 out of 10 — the lowest possible rating — with gross margins near zero, negative operating and net margins, and no competitive moat identified, meaning the company is growing revenue while generating near-zero returns on that growth.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality recovers above 4.0 as gross and operating margins improve materially over at least two consecutive quarters.
CounterFor an early-stage platform business investing heavily in customer acquisition and data infrastructure, weak near-term margins may be the expected cost of building scale; if the platform economics improve with scale, the quality rating could inflect from this low base.
Revenue is growing at 30% year over year with strong earnings growth, and the company ranks as the industry growth leader among its peer group — a rate of expansion that trades at a forward earnings multiple of 7.1x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.03.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays at or above 20% year over year for the next two reported quarters, confirming that the top-line expansion is durable rather than a one-period spike.
CounterThree of four recent quarters ended in earnings misses averaging roughly 255% below estimates, suggesting the company is growing revenue while burning through far more than expected at the bottom line; growth without earnings conversion may not re-rate the multiple.
The company has missed earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters, with an average shortfall of roughly 255% below consensus, indicating a wide and persistent gap between management guidance and actual results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss pattern reverses — EPS surprise turns positive for at least 2 consecutive quarters — demonstrating that the gap between guidance and delivery has closed.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a beat of roughly 65%, suggesting the trajectory may be improving; a single beat after a string of misses could mark the beginning of a guidance recalibration rather than a continuation of chronic underdelivery.
An elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.00 alongside implied volatility of 127% and an RSI of 75 — a technically overbought reading — suggests the recent price recovery may be outpacing the fundamental progress, creating a risk of a sharp pullback.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio compresses below 1.5 and the RSI normalizes below 65, indicating the options-market risk premium has unwound and the overbought condition has resolved.
CounterElevated put activity in a recovering small-capitalization name can reflect protective hedges placed by early investors rather than new directional bets; the rising on-balance volume and improving MACD suggest accumulation is underway alongside the hedging activity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 83%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.5 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 0.6 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.30
Upside
+64.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.92>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.3, and Sentiment at 8.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Quality at 2.0, and Catalyst at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue is growing at 30% year over year with strong earnings growth, and the company ranks as the industry growth leader among its peer group — a rate of expansion that trades at a forward earnings multiple of 7.1x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.03.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the top-line expansion has decelerated materially.
- P2Business quality sits at 2.0 out of 10 — the lowest possible rating — with gross margins near zero, negative operating and net margins, and no competitive moat identified, meaning the company is growing revenue while generating near-zero returns on that growth.
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the business has crossed the minimum investment floor.
- P3The company has missed earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters, with an average shortfall of roughly 255% below consensus, indicating a wide and persistent gap between management guidance and actual results.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the chronic miss pattern.
- P4An elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.00 alongside implied volatility of 127% and an RSI of 75 — a technically overbought reading — suggests the recent price recovery may be outpacing the fundamental progress, creating a risk of a sharp pullback.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 and RSI normalizes below 65, indicating the overbought and hedged positioning has unwound.