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GAINGladstone Investment CorporatioSell4.7·$15.56-0.70%
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Gladstone Investment Corporatio (GAIN) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.56 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings expected to decline ~81% (cyclical peak).

Gladstone Investment Corporation is business development company, specializes in lower middle market, mature stage, buyouts; refinancing existing debt; senior debt securities such as senior loans, senior term loans, lines of credit, and senior notes; senior subordinated debt... Read more

$15.56-0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#205 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield6.38%
IncomeYield6.17%(5y avg 6.61%)Payout20.13%sustainable
Stop $14.92Target $15.50(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$16.67+7.1%3 analysts
$15.50our TP
$15.56price
$16.67mean
$17

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.56 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings expected to decline ~81% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05

Recent Developments — Gladstone Investment Corporatio

Generated 2026-07-05T07:10:31Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 78%
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~81% (cyclical peak)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.3
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$620M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn186.5%
ROE31.7%
Rev Growth-8.6%
Beta0.76
Dividend6.17%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.75bearish
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -8.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.4
Declining revenue: -9%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 617.0%
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.51Resistance $15.82

Price Targets

$15
$16
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 17x vs trail 3x (5.1x)
! Target reached (-9.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GAIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.56 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings expected to decline ~81% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.92. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GAIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.50 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $14.92. Stop-loss: $14.92.

What are the risks of investing in GAIN?

Earnings expected to decline ~81% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is GAIN overvalued or undervalued?

Gladstone Investment Corporatio trades at a P/E of 3.3 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GAIN?

11 analysts cover GAIN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Gladstone Investment Corporatio do?Gladstone Investment Corporation is business development company, specializes in lower middle market, mature stage,...

Gladstone Investment Corporation is business development company, specializes in lower middle market, mature stage, buyouts; refinancing existing debt; senior debt securities such as senior loans, senior term loans, lines of credit, and senior notes; senior subordinated debt securities such as senior subordinated loans and senior subordinated notes; junior subordinated debt securities such as subordinated notes and mezzanine loans; limited liability company interests, and warrants or options. The fund does not invest in start-ups. The fund seeks to invest in manufacturing, consumer products and business/consumer services sector. It seeks to invest in small and mid-sized companies based in the United States. The fund prefers to make debt investments between $5 million and $30 million and equity investments between $10 million and $40 million in companies. The fund invests in companies with EBITDA from $4 million to $15 million. It seeks minority equity ownership and prefers to hold a board seat in its portfolio companies. It also prefers to take majority stake in its portfolio companies. The fund typically holds the investments for seven years and exits via sale or recapitalization, initial public offering, or sale to third party.

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