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FRMEFirst Merchants CorporationHold5.8·$41.25+0.24%
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First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Michigan; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FDIC and Indiana DFI.

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, operating 111 banking locations solely in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan through its subsidiary First Merchants Bank. The bank earns revenue from commercial and consumer lending, deposits,... Read more

$41.25+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#85 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.60%(5y avg 3.50%)Payout42.48%sustainable
Stop $39.37Target $41.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$47.60+15.4%5 analysts
$41.41our TP
$41.25price
$47.60mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Michigan; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FDIC and Indiana DFI. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About First Merchants Corporation

About First Merchants Corporation

First Merchants Corporation held $19.0 billion in consolidated assets, $15.3 billion in deposits, and $2.5 billion in stockholders' equity at December 31, 2025—reflecting a February 1, 2026 acquisition of First Savings Financial Group, a $2.4 billion institution headquartered in Jeffersonville, Indiana. The company operates 111 banking locations exclusively in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan through its single community banking segment, with the Bank subject to primary oversight by the FDIC and the Indiana DFI and the holding company regulated by the Federal Reserve.

First Merchants generates revenue primarily through net interest income on its commercial and consumer loan and investment portfolio, supplemented by fee income from treasury management, private wealth advisory services through First Merchants Private Wealth Advisors, and mortgage banking. Funding relies on $15.3 billion in total deposits, supplemented where needed by brokered certificates of deposit, repurchase agreements, federal funds purchased, and Federal Home Loan Bank advances; the 10-K notes that inability to access these sources at maturity could constrain financial flexibility. Capital ratios at December 31, 2025 included a CET1 of 11.70%, tier 1 of 11.86%, and total risk-based capital of 13.41%—each above the Basel III minimums inclusive of the 2.5% conservation buffer. The bank competes with national, regional, and internet banks as well as credit unions and finance companies across its three-state footprint.

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The 10-K notes that allowances for credit losses under the fully phased-in CECL methodology—fully reflected in regulatory capital on January 1, 2024—are sensitive to macro forecasts and management judgment, and that material additions to the allowance could materially reduce net income. First Merchants' credit strategy emphasizes diversification across regional geography, industry, and customer level, supported by an independent loan review function and a loan watch list, but the filing acknowledges that credit losses may exceed allowance levels if adverse conditions materialize. The February 2026 acquisition of First Savings Financial Group, adding $1.9 billion in loans, introduces near-term integration risk for the credit portfolio.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From First Merchants Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Michigan
Concentration risk — Regulatory: FDIC and Indiana DFI
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.2%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth-2.5%
Beta0.86
Dividend3.60%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicIndiana, Ohio, Michigan
    10-K Item 1: 'The Bank includes 111 banking locations in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.'
  • HIGHregulatoryFDIC and Indiana DFI
    10-K Item 1: 'The Bank is subject to the primary regulatory oversight, supervision and examination of the FDIC and the Indiana DFI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOW
    On May 19, 2026, director Gary Lehman (Board member since 2011) retired from First Merchants Corporation's Board, effective immediately. Paul Fultz was appointed same day to fill the vacancy, with term through the 2027 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with Corporation cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.50Resistance $42.52

Price Targets

$39
$41
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRME stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Michigan; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FDIC and Indiana DFI. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $41.41 (+0.4%), stop $39.37 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.41 (+0.4% upside). Target $41.41 (+0.4%), stop $39.37 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $39.37.

What are the risks of investing in FRME?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Michigan; Concentration risk — Regulatory: FDIC and Indiana DFI; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FRME overvalued or undervalued?

First Merchants Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FRME?

12 analysts cover FRME with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does First Merchants Corporation do?First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, operating 111 banking...

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, operating 111 banking locations solely in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan through its subsidiary First Merchants Bank. The bank earns revenue from commercial and consumer lending, deposits, mortgage banking, and private wealth management, reporting $19.0 billion in consolidated assets and $15.3 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025.

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