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First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company with $19B in assets and 111 banking locations in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan through First Merchants Bank (est. 1893). In February 2026, it acquired First Savings Financial Group (Indiana, $2.4B assets). Revenue comes... Read more

$40.52+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#93 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $38.91Target $41.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$47.60+17.5%5 analysts
$41.41our TP
$40.52price
$47.60mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.2%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth-2.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.62%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

IV55%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-09Item 5.02LOW
    Larry W. Myers appointed to Board on February 9, 2026 as 13th director (Class III). Serves until 2026 Annual Meeting; director compensation deferred until Q3 2026 due to temporary employee status during First Savings merger integration.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-06Item 5.02LOW
    Board adopted 2026 Senior Management Incentive Compensation Program on February 3, 2026, setting performance-based cash incentive levels for named executives at threshold, target, and maximum.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.63Resistance $41.72

Price Targets

$39
$41
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.2% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRME stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $41.41 (+2.2%), stop $38.91 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.41 (+2.2% upside). Target $41.41 (+2.2%), stop $38.91 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $38.91.

What are the risks of investing in FRME?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FRME overvalued or undervalued?

First Merchants Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FRME?

12 analysts cover FRME with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does First Merchants Corporation do?First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company with $19B in assets and 111 banking locations in Indiana,...

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company with $19B in assets and 111 banking locations in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan through First Merchants Bank (est. 1893). In February 2026, it acquired First Savings Financial Group (Indiana, $2.4B assets). Revenue comes from community banking, Private Wealth Advisors, and related financial services.

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