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First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $39.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana with $19B in assets and 111 banking locations across Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, operating a single community banking segment through First Merchants Bank. It completed acquisition of... Read more

$39.60+4.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#81 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.64%(5y avg 3.48%)Payout42.48%sustainable
Stop $38.06Target $41.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$47.60+20.2%5 analysts
$41.41our TP
$39.60price
$47.60mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $39.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — First Merchants Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.2%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth-2.5%
Beta0.87
Dividend3.64%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMregulatoryFDIC and Indiana DFI
    10-K Item 1: 'The Bank is subject to the primary regulatory oversight, supervision and examination of the FDIC and the Indiana DFI'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
4.6
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.77Resistance $41.09

Price Targets

$38
$41
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRME stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $39.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $41.41 (+4.6%), stop $38.06 (−4.0%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.41 (+4.6% upside). Target $41.41 (+4.6%), stop $38.06 (−4.0%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $38.06.

What are the risks of investing in FRME?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Is FRME overvalued or undervalued?

First Merchants Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FRME?

12 analysts cover FRME with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does First Merchants Corporation do?First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana with $19B in assets and 111...

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana with $19B in assets and 111 banking locations across Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, operating a single community banking segment through First Merchants Bank. It completed acquisition of First Savings Financial Group (Jeffersonville, IN; $2.4B assets) on February 1, 2026.

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