Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.6 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
FLYW · Why this verdict
Why Flywire Corporation - Voting (FLYW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A wide economic moat, a near-perfect financial health score of 9 out of 9, exceptional free-cash-flow conversion at 532% of net income, and 41% revenue growth make the business a high-quality franchise among its peers, but at the current price only 8% of headroom remains to the analyst consensus target against approximately 10% of downside — a thin geometry that warrants holding existing positions but not adding until either a price pullback or an upward analyst revision restores a more attractive entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 41% year over year, placing the business among the top performers in its industry peer group — a growth rate that should continue compounding the company's market position and reinforce the wide moat over time. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 25% year over year in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent miss — where actual results came in 71% below estimates — introduces meaningful execution risk; a sustained deceleration of the growth rate below 20% would undermine the premium the stock requires to hold at current levels. | ||
Free cash flow runs at 532% of net income — indicating the business generates far more real cash than its reported earnings suggest — while a wide economic moat and a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 confirm that the quality foundation is among the strongest in the peer group. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 200% and the Piotroski score holds at 8 or 9 out of 9 over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA free cash flow ratio of 532% relative to net income, while exceptional on its face, can be distorted by favorable working capital timing, deferred revenue, or one-time cash receipts; if the ratio compresses sharply in the next two quarters, the quality profile would prove less durable than the headline implies. | ||
At the current price, the stock offers only 8% headroom to the analyst consensus target while carrying approximately 10% downside risk — an entry geometry that does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold required for a new position and supports a hold-but-not-add posture despite the strong underlying fundamentals. Engine gate (failed) | Implied upside to the analyst consensus price target expands above 20% through either a price pullback or an upward revision in analyst targets, restoring an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterWith price momentum above the 200-day moving average, rising on-balance volume, and strong fundamental quality, the thin remaining upside may compress further as the market continues to award the business multiple expansion, leaving existing holders well positioned despite the geometric constraint. | ||
The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 2.29 — more than twice the neutral level — indicating that market participants are positioned for a near-term decline, which can act as an overhang on price appreciation even in a fundamentally strong name. Risk breakdown | Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 over the next 60 days as near-term hedging demand subsides and the stock range-resolves to the upside. | →Stable |
| CounterA high put-to-call ratio in a name with rising on-balance volume and above-200-day-MA price action may primarily reflect long holders protecting gains rather than directional bears — a signal that can read as neutral or even contrary bullish rather than a reliable indicator of imminent downside. | ||
Revenue grew 41% year over year, placing the business among the top performers in its industry peer group — a growth rate that should continue compounding the company's market position and reinforce the wide moat over time.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 25% year over year in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe most recent miss — where actual results came in 71% below estimates — introduces meaningful execution risk; a sustained deceleration of the growth rate below 20% would undermine the premium the stock requires to hold at current levels.
Free cash flow runs at 532% of net income — indicating the business generates far more real cash than its reported earnings suggest — while a wide economic moat and a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 confirm that the quality foundation is among the strongest in the peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 200% and the Piotroski score holds at 8 or 9 out of 9 over the next four reported quarters.
CounterA free cash flow ratio of 532% relative to net income, while exceptional on its face, can be distorted by favorable working capital timing, deferred revenue, or one-time cash receipts; if the ratio compresses sharply in the next two quarters, the quality profile would prove less durable than the headline implies.
At the current price, the stock offers only 8% headroom to the analyst consensus target while carrying approximately 10% downside risk — an entry geometry that does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold required for a new position and supports a hold-but-not-add posture despite the strong underlying fundamentals.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Implied upside to the analyst consensus price target expands above 20% through either a price pullback or an upward revision in analyst targets, restoring an attractive risk-to-reward ratio.
CounterWith price momentum above the 200-day moving average, rising on-balance volume, and strong fundamental quality, the thin remaining upside may compress further as the market continues to award the business multiple expansion, leaving existing holders well positioned despite the geometric constraint.
The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 2.29 — more than twice the neutral level — indicating that market participants are positioned for a near-term decline, which can act as an overhang on price appreciation even in a fundamentally strong name.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 over the next 60 days as near-term hedging demand subsides and the stock range-resolves to the upside.
CounterA high put-to-call ratio in a name with rising on-balance volume and above-200-day-MA price action may primarily reflect long holders protecting gains rather than directional bears — a signal that can read as neutral or even contrary bullish rather than a reliable indicator of imminent downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 532% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,224,869 (0.305% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.09
Upside
-1.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.3, Technical at 3.4, and Catalyst at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free cash flow runs at 532% of net income — indicating the business generates far more real cash than its reported earnings suggest — while a wide economic moat and a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 confirm that the quality foundation is among the strongest in the peer group.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Revenue grew 41% year over year, placing the business among the top performers in its industry peer group — a growth rate that should continue compounding the company's market position and reinforce the wide moat over time.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3At the current price, the stock offers only 8% headroom to the analyst consensus target while carrying approximately 10% downside risk — an entry geometry that does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold required for a new position and supports a hold-but-not-add posture despite the strong underlying fundamentals.
Trip ifImplied upside to the analyst consensus price target expands above 20% for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 2.29 — more than twice the neutral level — indicating that market participants are positioned for a near-term decline, which can act as an overhang on price appreciation even in a fundamentally strong name.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 and remains there for 30 consecutive trading days.