Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 3.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.7x
- ▸PEG: 3.48
FIZZ · Why this verdict
Why National Beverage (FIZZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a put/call ratio of 1.5 indicate elevated bearish options positioning and deteriorating technical structure — suggesting near-term selling pressure persists. Warnings | OBV continues declining and price stays below the 200-day moving average for the next 60 days, confirming that the technical pressure has not yet been absorbed. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum sits above the minimum gate at 4.9 with a bullish MACD and RSI at 55, and the pattern is characterized as a continuation setup — the death cross may prove a false signal if even a modest positive earnings catalyst re-engages buyers. | ||
A return on equity of 38%, operating margins of 16%, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 reflect a financially healthy business with a strong balance sheet — the quality profile is well above average for the peer group. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and operating margins stay above 12% over the next two annual reporting periods, confirming the quality profile is sustainable. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow runs at only 64% of net income, indicating that earnings quality is not fully backed by cash generation — a persistent shortfall could signal accrual-based reporting inflation or rising working capital demands that erode real cash returns over time. | ||
Two misses and two inline prints over the last four quarters with an average surprise of negative 1.7% indicate the business is no longer consistently beating estimates, weakening the earnings reliability case. Earnings | The miss/inline pattern continues — at least 2 of the next 4 quarters come in at or below consensus, confirming that the deterioration in earnings delivery is not yet resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe misses are small in magnitude (within 5% of estimates), the inline results are near-beats, and for a consumer staple business, this level of near-miss frequency may reflect typical estimation noise rather than a fundamentally deteriorating trend. | ||
With only 2.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target and unfavorable risk/reward geometry where downside exceeds upside, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the known risks — including a 13% short interest and elevated put/call ratio of 1.5. Price targets | Stock fails to sustain above the analyst consensus target of $37.44 over the next 6 months, and short interest remains above 10%, confirming the limited upside thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterA 13% short interest creates meaningful short-squeeze potential; if the business delivers even a modest positive earnings surprise with earnings approaching in 15 days, rapid covering could generate a disproportionate upside move beyond the narrow technical target. | ||
A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a put/call ratio of 1.5 indicate elevated bearish options positioning and deteriorating technical structure — suggesting near-term selling pressure persists.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- OBV continues declining and price stays below the 200-day moving average for the next 60 days, confirming that the technical pressure has not yet been absorbed.
CounterMomentum sits above the minimum gate at 4.9 with a bullish MACD and RSI at 55, and the pattern is characterized as a continuation setup — the death cross may prove a false signal if even a modest positive earnings catalyst re-engages buyers.
A return on equity of 38%, operating margins of 16%, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 reflect a financially healthy business with a strong balance sheet — the quality profile is well above average for the peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and operating margins stay above 12% over the next two annual reporting periods, confirming the quality profile is sustainable.
CounterFree cash flow runs at only 64% of net income, indicating that earnings quality is not fully backed by cash generation — a persistent shortfall could signal accrual-based reporting inflation or rising working capital demands that erode real cash returns over time.
Two misses and two inline prints over the last four quarters with an average surprise of negative 1.7% indicate the business is no longer consistently beating estimates, weakening the earnings reliability case.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss/inline pattern continues — at least 2 of the next 4 quarters come in at or below consensus, confirming that the deterioration in earnings delivery is not yet resolved.
CounterThe misses are small in magnitude (within 5% of estimates), the inline results are near-beats, and for a consumer staple business, this level of near-miss frequency may reflect typical estimation noise rather than a fundamentally deteriorating trend.
With only 2.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target and unfavorable risk/reward geometry where downside exceeds upside, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the known risks — including a 13% short interest and elevated put/call ratio of 1.5.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Stock fails to sustain above the analyst consensus target of $37.44 over the next 6 months, and short interest remains above 10%, confirming the limited upside thesis.
CounterA 13% short interest creates meaningful short-squeeze potential; if the business delivers even a modest positive earnings surprise with earnings approaching in 15 days, rapid covering could generate a disproportionate upside move beyond the narrow technical target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 7.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 3.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.6 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.7 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.43
Upside
-12.0%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (1.3)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.43 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Technical at 7.5, and Value at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Growth at 2.6, and Catalyst at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A return on equity of 38%, operating margins of 16%, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 reflect a financially healthy business with a strong balance sheet — the quality profile is well above average for the peer group.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive annual periods, eroding the margin profile that underpins the high-quality characterization.
- P2Two misses and two inline prints over the last four quarters with an average surprise of negative 1.7% indicate the business is no longer consistently beating estimates, weakening the earnings reliability case.
Trip ifEPS positive surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current pattern of misses and inline results.
- P3A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a put/call ratio of 1.5 indicate elevated bearish options positioning and deteriorating technical structure — suggesting near-term selling pressure persists.
Trip if50-day moving average crosses above 200-day moving average and OBV rises above its 30-day average for 20 consecutive days, confirming technical reversal.
- P4With only 2.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target and unfavorable risk/reward geometry where downside exceeds upside, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the known risks — including a 13% short interest and elevated put/call ratio of 1.5.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $45, restoring more than 23% upside from the current price of $36.55.