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First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (75.0%).

First Hawaiian is the largest bank in Hawaii by loans and net income, operating 49 branches in Hawaii (45), Guam (3), and Saipan (1) with $14.3B gross loans and $276.3M net income in 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income on commercial lending (56% of loan portfolio),... Read more

$26.63+1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#107 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.93%(5y avg 4.35%)Payout45.61%sustainable
Stop $25.43Target $27.06(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$28.00+5.1%9 analysts
$27.06our TP
$26.63price
$28.00mean
$26
$31

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (75.0%). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — First Hawaiian, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (75.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.8%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta0.74
Dividend3.93%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHawaii, Guam, and Saipan
    10-K Item 1: 'we operate a network of 49 branches in Hawaii (45 branches), Guam (3 branches) and Saipan (1 branch)'
  • HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our real estate loans represented approximately $10.7 billion, or 75% of our total loan and lease portfolio'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial lending56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Commercial lending represents approximately 56% of our total loan and lease portfolio'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our commercial real estate loans represented approximately $4.6 billion or 32% of our total loan and lease portfolio'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop five dealer flooring commitments40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top five dealer relationships represented approximately 40% of our outstanding dealer flooring commitments as of December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02LOW
    Alan H. Arizumi, Vice Chair Wealth Management Group, announced retirement effective March 31, 2026. Not due to any disagreement with the Company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.83Resistance $27.61

Price Targets

$25
$27
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.5% upside)
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FHB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (75.0%). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $27.06 (+1.6%), stop $25.43 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FHB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.06 (+1.6% upside). Target $27.06 (+1.6%), stop $25.43 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $25.43.

What are the risks of investing in FHB?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FHB overvalued or undervalued?

First Hawaiian, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FHB?

17 analysts cover FHB with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $28.

What does First Hawaiian, Inc. do?First Hawaiian is the largest bank in Hawaii by loans and net income, operating 49 branches in Hawaii (45), Guam (3),...

First Hawaiian is the largest bank in Hawaii by loans and net income, operating 49 branches in Hawaii (45), Guam (3), and Saipan (1) with $14.3B gross loans and $276.3M net income in 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income on commercial lending (56% of loan portfolio), consumer real estate loans, and wealth management for customers concentrated in Hawaii's island markets.

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