First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $27.20, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam and Saipan; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loans 75% of portfolio (75.0%).
First Hawaiian is the largest bank headquartered in Hawaii by loans and net income, with $14.3B in gross loans and 49 branches in Hawaii (45), Guam (3), and Saipan (1). It generated $276.3M net income in 2025. Real estate loans represent 75% of the total loan portfolio,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $27.20, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam and Saipan; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loans 75% of portfolio (75.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicHawaii, Guam and Saipan10-K Item 1A: 'We provide banking and financial services to customers primarily in Hawaii, Guam and Saipan'
- HIGHTenantreal estate loans 75% of portfolio75%10-K Item 1A: 'our real estate loans represented approximately $10.7 billion, or 75% of our total loan and lease portfolio'
- MEDIUMCustomertop 5 dealer relationships40%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five dealer relationships represented approximately 40% of our outstanding dealer flooring commitments as of December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-24Item 5.02LOWAlan H. Arizumi (Vice Chair, Wealth Management) announced retirement effective March 31, 2026. No disagreement cited. No successor named in the filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $27.20, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam and Saipan; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loans 75% of portfolio (75.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $25.79. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.22 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $25.79. Stop-loss: $25.79.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii, Guam and Saipan; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loans 75% of portfolio (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
First Hawaiian, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover FHB with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $28.
What does First Hawaiian, Inc. do?First Hawaiian is the largest bank headquartered in Hawaii by loans and net income, with $14.3B in gross loans and 49...
First Hawaiian is the largest bank headquartered in Hawaii by loans and net income, with $14.3B in gross loans and 49 branches in Hawaii (45), Guam (3), and Saipan (1). It generated $276.3M net income in 2025. Real estate loans represent 75% of the total loan portfolio, concentrated in Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan.