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First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

First Financial Bancorp is a Cincinnati-based regional bank holding company serving Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois through First Financial Bank and specialty lending subsidiaries (Oak Street Funding, First Franchise Capital, Bannockburn Global Forex). It acquired... Read more

$29.85+2.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#28 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield3.34%(5y avg 3.95%)Payout34.98%sustainable
Stop $28.65Target $30.60(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$33.43+12.0%7 analysts
$30.60our TP
$29.85price
$33.43mean
$37

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.1Qual5.5Grw9.2Mom3.1Sent5.6Ins3.9Peer6.2Tech7.3Risk6.06.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — First Financial Bancorp.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.9% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.6
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth32.3%
Beta0.94
Dividend3.34%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.80bearish
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicIndiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois
    10-K Item 1A: 'our community banking business model and local market focus has led to a concentration in the markets in which we operate, namely Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois'
  • MEDIUMCustomersmall number of large clients (Bannockburn)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Bannockburn's business model relies, to some extent, upon a small number of large clients. The loss of one or more of these large clients would adversely affect the revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.2
Volume
2.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.97Resistance $31.22

Price Targets

$29
$31
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FFBC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.60 (+2.5%), stop $28.65 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FFBC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.60 (+2.5% upside). Target $30.60 (+2.5%), stop $28.65 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $28.65.

What are the risks of investing in FFBC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away).

Is FFBC overvalued or undervalued?

First Financial Bancorp. trades at a P/E of 10.6 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FFBC?

13 analysts cover FFBC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $33.

What does First Financial Bancorp. do?First Financial Bancorp is a Cincinnati-based regional bank holding company serving Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and...

First Financial Bancorp is a Cincinnati-based regional bank holding company serving Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois through First Financial Bank and specialty lending subsidiaries (Oak Street Funding, First Franchise Capital, Bannockburn Global Forex). It acquired Westfield Bancorp ($324M, Nov 2025) and BankFinancial Corporation ($1.4B assets, closed Jan 2026). The bank provides commercial, real estate, and consumer lending along with trust and wealth management.

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