Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.40
- ▸Attractively valued
FCNCA · Why this verdict
Why First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Citizens BancShares has sustained a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of approximately 13%, supported by an attractive forward multiple and a technical breakout structure, yet the stock has largely closed the gap to its near-term resistance target, leaving minimal reward for new exposure at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.4 times and a PEG ratio of 1.37, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a combination the value dimension flags as noteworthy for a regional bank running operational margins near 25%. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 13x as earnings estimates hold or improve, preserving the value argument over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank valuations are acutely sensitive to credit cycle turns and interest rate shifts; an economic slowdown could compress earnings and eliminate the margin of safety implied by the current forward multiple. | ||
The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — most recently by 14%, and 17%, 8%, and 15% in prior quarters — a consistent pattern of outperformance that speaks to management's track record of guiding conservatively and delivering above expectations. Earnings | EPS beats continue for at least two of the next four quarters, sustaining average positive surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterGuidance discipline can erode as analyst models converge on actual performance; once consensus catches up to realized results, the margin for positive surprises narrows and the beat streak becomes harder to sustain. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and carries an RSI of 59 with a bullish MACD — a configuration consistent with a breakout posture that often precedes further price appreciation over a 3-to-6-month horizon. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and the MACD remains positive for at least 8 consecutive weeks, confirming the breakout structure holds. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling even as price rises — a divergence suggesting buyers are not increasing in conviction — which can precede a reversal of the current technical structure before it fully matures. | ||
With the stock sitting just 2.1% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.39-to-1, the current entry geometry offers minimal reward relative to downside — an unfavorable setup that does not support adding new exposure at this price. Price targets | A pullback that expands upside to the take-profit target beyond 10% and restores a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1 would signal a reset entry opportunity. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the underlying momentum and earnings trajectory lead to upward target revisions, the current price could prove a reasonable entry level with additional upside emerging without requiring a pullback. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.4 times and a PEG ratio of 1.37, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a combination the value dimension flags as noteworthy for a regional bank running operational margins near 25%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 13x as earnings estimates hold or improve, preserving the value argument over the next four quarters.
CounterRegional bank valuations are acutely sensitive to credit cycle turns and interest rate shifts; an economic slowdown could compress earnings and eliminate the margin of safety implied by the current forward multiple.
The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — most recently by 14%, and 17%, 8%, and 15% in prior quarters — a consistent pattern of outperformance that speaks to management's track record of guiding conservatively and delivering above expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue for at least two of the next four quarters, sustaining average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterGuidance discipline can erode as analyst models converge on actual performance; once consensus catches up to realized results, the margin for positive surprises narrows and the beat streak becomes harder to sustain.
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and carries an RSI of 59 with a bullish MACD — a configuration consistent with a breakout posture that often precedes further price appreciation over a 3-to-6-month horizon.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and the MACD remains positive for at least 8 consecutive weeks, confirming the breakout structure holds.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling even as price rises — a divergence suggesting buyers are not increasing in conviction — which can precede a reversal of the current technical structure before it fully matures.
With the stock sitting just 2.1% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.39-to-1, the current entry geometry offers minimal reward relative to downside — an unfavorable setup that does not support adding new exposure at this price.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback that expands upside to the take-profit target beyond 10% and restores a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1 would signal a reset entry opportunity.
CounterIf the underlying momentum and earnings trajectory lead to upward target revisions, the current price could prove a reasonable entry level with additional upside emerging without requiring a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 6.7 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,842,191 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 0.1 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 2.4 |
| implied vol | 7.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.64
- ▸Above max pain $1760
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 40.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.07
Upside
-8.4%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.1; weakest: Peer rank at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Catalyst at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.4, Technical at 4.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — most recently by 14%, and 17%, 8%, and 15% in prior quarters — a consistent pattern of outperformance that speaks to management's track record of guiding conservatively and delivering above expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.4 times and a PEG ratio of 1.37, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a combination the value dimension flags as noteworthy for a regional bank running operational margins near 25%.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 14x from the current 10.4x, eliminating the relative value argument.
- P3The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and carries an RSI of 59 with a bullish MACD — a configuration consistent with a breakout posture that often precedes further price appreciation over a 3-to-6-month horizon.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days, breaking the breakout structure.
- P4With the stock sitting just 2.1% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.39-to-1, the current entry geometry offers minimal reward relative to downside — an unfavorable setup that does not support adding new exposure at this price.
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target expands beyond 10% from current price, restoring reward-to-risk above 1.5-to-1.