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First (FCF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation provides consumer and commercial banking through First Commonwealth Bank's 126 branches in western/central Pennsylvania and Ohio, plus insurance and trust services. Total assets were 12.3B at Dec 31, 2025.

$18.42+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#98 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $17.64Target $18.76(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$20.67+12.2%6 analysts
$18.76our TP
$18.42price
$20.67mean
$21

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.1% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.75
Dividend3.05%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV85%elevated
Max Pain$3-86.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductcommercial real estate mortgage loans33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate mortgage loans comprised approximately 33% of our loan portfolio'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-28Item 5.02LOW
    Norman Montgomery, EVP and Business Integration Group Manager, notified intent to retire May 1, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited beyond planned retirement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.56Resistance $19.14

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $17.64. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FCF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.76 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $17.64. Stop-loss: $17.64.

What are the risks of investing in FCF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is FCF overvalued or undervalued?

First trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FCF?

10 analysts cover FCF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $21.

What does First do?First Commonwealth Financial Corporation provides consumer and commercial banking through First Commonwealth Bank's 126...

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation provides consumer and commercial banking through First Commonwealth Bank's 126 branches in western/central Pennsylvania and Ohio, plus insurance and trust services. Total assets were 12.3B at Dec 31, 2025.

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