First (FCF) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away).
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation provides consumer and commercial banking through First Commonwealth Bank's 126 branches in western/central Pennsylvania and Ohio, plus insurance and trust services. Total assets were 12.3B at Dec 31, 2025.
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductcommercial real estate mortgage loans33%10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate mortgage loans comprised approximately 33% of our loan portfolio'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-01-28Item 5.02LOWNorman Montgomery, EVP and Business Integration Group Manager, notified intent to retire May 1, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited beyond planned retirement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $17.64. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.76 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $17.64. Stop-loss: $17.64.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
First trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover FCF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $21.
What does First do?First Commonwealth Financial Corporation provides consumer and commercial banking through First Commonwealth Bank's 126...
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation provides consumer and commercial banking through First Commonwealth Bank's 126 branches in western/central Pennsylvania and Ohio, plus insurance and trust services. Total assets were 12.3B at Dec 31, 2025.