Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
DY · Why this verdict
Why Dycom Industries (DY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 26% upside surprise and industry-leading revenue growth of 56% year over year support a constructive thesis; the primary restraints are leverage near 1.6x debt-to-equity and an asymmetry ratio that has not yet cleared the stricter threshold at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Debt-to-equity near 1.6x reduces the financial cushion available to fund growth investment and leaves earnings more exposed to interest cost pressure if the operating environment tightens. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines toward 1.0x over the next four quarters as operating cash generation strengthens. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and a strong free cash flow quality score suggest the business is generating sufficient cash to service its existing obligations without immediate balance-sheet stress. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with an average upside surprise of nearly 26% and a 62.5% beat in the most recent period — a pattern that reflects disciplined execution and consistently conservative guidance. Catalyst | The beat streak extends, with EPS surprises averaging above 10% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 62.5% beat in a single quarter may reflect timing of project completions or an unusually low consensus bar rather than a sustainable operational inflection, making extrapolation risky. | ||
Revenue has grown 56% year over year, placing the company at the top of its industry peer group on growth, while a forward PEG of 0.54 suggests the market has not yet fully rewarded that pace with a proportionate premium. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year over year in each of the next two reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh growth rates can be difficult to sustain at scale, and the growth score confidence of 0.67 reflects meaningful uncertainty in the trajectory beyond the most recently reported period. | ||
The stock sits 17.6% below its price target with a 2.51-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio, and the analyst consensus implies approximately 35% additional upside — a geometry that supports holding through short-term technical softness. Price targets | The stock closes at least half the gap to its price target within the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.47 and a recent officer transition disclosed in regulatory filings suggest market participants and insiders may be more cautious than the headline upside implies. | ||
Debt-to-equity near 1.6x reduces the financial cushion available to fund growth investment and leaves earnings more exposed to interest cost pressure if the operating environment tightens.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines toward 1.0x over the next four quarters as operating cash generation strengthens.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and a strong free cash flow quality score suggest the business is generating sufficient cash to service its existing obligations without immediate balance-sheet stress.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with an average upside surprise of nearly 26% and a 62.5% beat in the most recent period — a pattern that reflects disciplined execution and consistently conservative guidance.
→StableCatalyst
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends, with EPS surprises averaging above 10% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterA 62.5% beat in a single quarter may reflect timing of project completions or an unusually low consensus bar rather than a sustainable operational inflection, making extrapolation risky.
Revenue has grown 56% year over year, placing the company at the top of its industry peer group on growth, while a forward PEG of 0.54 suggests the market has not yet fully rewarded that pace with a proportionate premium.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year over year in each of the next two reported quarters.
CounterHigh growth rates can be difficult to sustain at scale, and the growth score confidence of 0.67 reflects meaningful uncertainty in the trajectory beyond the most recently reported period.
The stock sits 17.6% below its price target with a 2.51-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio, and the analyst consensus implies approximately 35% additional upside — a geometry that supports holding through short-term technical softness.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least half the gap to its price target within the next 12 months.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.47 and a recent officer transition disclosed in regulatory filings suggest market participants and insiders may be more cautious than the headline upside implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.37
Upside
+14.7%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.50>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.2, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with an average upside surprise of nearly 26% and a 62.5% beat in the most recent period — a pattern that reflects disciplined execution and consistently conservative guidance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue has grown 56% year over year, placing the company at the top of its industry peer group on growth, while a forward PEG of 0.54 suggests the market has not yet fully rewarded that pace with a proportionate premium.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3The stock sits 17.6% below its price target with a 2.51-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio, and the analyst consensus implies approximately 35% additional upside — a geometry that supports holding through short-term technical softness.
Trip ifUpside to price target compresses below 5% from current 17.6%.
- P4Debt-to-equity near 1.6x reduces the financial cushion available to fund growth investment and leaves earnings more exposed to interest cost pressure if the operating environment tightens.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 1.0x for 2 consecutive reported quarters.