Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
DHR · Why this verdict
Why Danaher (DHR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
DHR at $172.81 shows mixed signals: 4/4 beats, 9/9 Piotroski, 124% FCF/NI conversion, RECOVERY setup with asymmetry 4.11 and 28% upside — but bear_case flags geographic concentration (59% non-US), weak growth (3.4 revenue), confirmed downtrend below 200-day MA — action_note 'Mixed signals. Hold existing position.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality 6.8 with notes 'Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI' and 'Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9' plus operating_margin 9.2/10 — DHR converts earnings to cash at a top-decile rate. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion stays above 110% and Piotroski F-Score stays 8+/9 over the next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterFCF/NI 124% can mean working-capital release rather than structural cash generation; if working-capital normalizes, FCF/NI reverts toward 90-100%. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q', avg_surprise_pct 6.93%, and consistent 6-10% beats across all four quarters — execution against estimates is durable. Bull case (item 1) | Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 5% by the 2026-07-21 print. | →stable |
| CounterDiagnostics & Research demand normalization post-COVID continues; beats may be against guided-down estimates rather than genuine upside. | ||
Bear_case 'Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S. (59.0%)' with risk.notes confirming '1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A)' — 59% non-US revenue is exposed to FX, China demand, and trade policy shocks. Bear case (item 1) | Risk subscore stays above 6.0 and no new HIGH concentration risk adds to bear_case in next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterGlobal diversification across instruments customers is a feature, not a bug — concentration framing penalizes geographic breadth that smooths cyclical demand. | ||
Bear_case 'Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)' contradicts the recovery setup — even though MACD/OBV are improving, ma_position component is 4.0/10 and 52w_position 4.3/10. Bear case (item 3) | Price reclaims 200-day MA and ma_position component rises above 6.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterMACD bullish + rising OBV + RSI 47 are the early-recovery template; downtrend confirmation lags MACD by ~30 days, so the 'confirmed downtrend' tag may invert before the next refresh. | ||
Bull_case 'Analyst upside: 28%' with sentiment 7.9 (analyst_rating 9.0, price_target 9.3) and TP $221.67 versus $172.81 spot — sell-side is well above price. Bull case (item 2) | Analyst take_profit holds above $215 with sentiment subscore above 7.5 over next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterSell-side targets routinely lag rather than lead in healthcare; 28% upside with a confirmed downtrend rarely closes within the implied 12-month horizon. | ||
Quality 6.8 with notes 'Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI' and 'Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9' plus operating_margin 9.2/10 — DHR converts earnings to cash at a top-decile rate.
→stableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion stays above 110% and Piotroski F-Score stays 8+/9 over the next 2 refreshes.
CounterFCF/NI 124% can mean working-capital release rather than structural cash generation; if working-capital normalizes, FCF/NI reverts toward 90-100%.
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q', avg_surprise_pct 6.93%, and consistent 6-10% beats across all four quarters — execution against estimates is durable.
→stableBull case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 5% by the 2026-07-21 print.
CounterDiagnostics & Research demand normalization post-COVID continues; beats may be against guided-down estimates rather than genuine upside.
Bear_case 'Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S. (59.0%)' with risk.notes confirming '1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A)' — 59% non-US revenue is exposed to FX, China demand, and trade policy shocks.
→stableBear case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Risk subscore stays above 6.0 and no new HIGH concentration risk adds to bear_case in next 2 refreshes.
CounterGlobal diversification across instruments customers is a feature, not a bug — concentration framing penalizes geographic breadth that smooths cyclical demand.
Bear_case 'Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)' contradicts the recovery setup — even though MACD/OBV are improving, ma_position component is 4.0/10 and 52w_position 4.3/10.
→stableBear case (item 3)
- Expectation
- Price reclaims 200-day MA and ma_position component rises above 6.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterMACD bullish + rising OBV + RSI 47 are the early-recovery template; downtrend confirmation lags MACD by ~30 days, so the 'confirmed downtrend' tag may invert before the next refresh.
Bull_case 'Analyst upside: 28%' with sentiment 7.9 (analyst_rating 9.0, price_target 9.3) and TP $221.67 versus $172.81 spot — sell-side is well above price.
→stableBull case (item 2)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit holds above $215 with sentiment subscore above 7.5 over next 2 refreshes.
CounterSell-side targets routinely lag rather than lead in healthcare; 28% upside with a confirmed downtrend rarely closes within the implied 12-month horizon.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 6.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 9.0 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.80 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $237,207 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 89.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.76
Upside
+20.9%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.5 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.76 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 9.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Peer rank at 2.7, and Growth at 3.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality 6.8 with notes 'Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI' and 'Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9' plus operating_margin 9.2/10 — DHR converts earnings to cash at a top-decile rate.
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion falls below 80% or Piotroski F drops below 6/9.
- P2Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q', avg_surprise_pct 6.93%, and consistent 6-10% beats across all four quarters — execution against estimates is durable.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 2/4 with avg_surprise_pct below 3%.
- P3Bear_case 'Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S. (59.0%)' with risk.notes confirming '1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A)' — 59% non-US revenue is exposed to FX, China demand, and trade policy shocks.
Trip ifA new HIGH-severity concentration risk adds to bear_case (>= 2 HIGH total).
- P4Bear_case 'Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)' contradicts the recovery setup — even though MACD/OBV are improving, ma_position component is 4.0/10 and 52w_position 4.3/10.
Trip ifPrice stays below 200-day MA for 3 consecutive refreshes with MA slope still negative.
- P5Bull_case 'Analyst upside: 28%' with sentiment 7.9 (analyst_rating 9.0, price_target 9.3) and TP $221.67 versus $172.81 spot — sell-side is well above price.
Trip ifAnalyst take_profit drops below $190 with sentiment subscore below 6.5.