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Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Capital Southwest Corporation is a business development company. The firm specializes in credit and private equity and venture capital investments in lower middle market companies, mezzanine, later stage, mature, late venture, emerging growth, buyouts, industry consolidation,... Read more

$23.12+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#44 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield10.99%(5y avg 10.14%)Payout144.95%at-risk
Stop $22.41Target $23.75(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$24.90+7.7%5 analysts
$23.75our TP
$23.12price
$24.90mean
$21
$29

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Capital Southwest Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)10.5
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn48.7%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth-4.0%
Beta
Dividend10.99%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV31%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.4
Macd
1.6
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.8
Value Rank
4.9
Quality Rank
6.6
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.10Resistance $24.23

Price Targets

$22
$24
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSWC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $22.41. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSWC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.75 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $22.41. Stop-loss: $22.41.

What are the risks of investing in CSWC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is CSWC overvalued or undervalued?

Capital Southwest Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSWC?

14 analysts cover CSWC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Capital Southwest Corporation do?Capital Southwest Corporation is a business development company. The firm specializes in credit and private equity and...

Capital Southwest Corporation is a business development company. The firm specializes in credit and private equity and venture capital investments in lower middle market companies, mezzanine, later stage, mature, late venture, emerging growth, buyouts, industry consolidation, recapitalizations and growth capital investments. The firm does not invest in startups, publicly traded companies, real estate developments, project finance opportunities, oil and gas exploration businesses, troubled companies, turnarounds, and companies in which significant senior management is departing. In lower middle market, the firm typically invests in growth financing, bolt-on acquisitions, new platform acquisitions, refinancing, dividend recapitalizations, sponsor-led buyouts, and management buyout situations. The investment structures are unitranche debt, subordinated debt, senior debt, first and second lien debt, and preferred and common equity. The firm makes equity co-investments alongside debt investments, up to 20 percent of total check and only makes non-control investments. The firm is industry agnostic, but it prefers to invest in industrial manufacturing and services, value-added distribution, healthcare products and services, business services, specialty chemicals, food and beverage, tech-enabled services and SaaS models. The firm seeks to invest in energy services and products, industrial technologies, and specialty chemicals and products. Within energy services and products, the firm seeks to invest in each segment of the industry, including upstream, midstream and downstream, excluding exploration and production, with a focus on differentiated products and services, equipment and tool rental, consumable products, and drilling and completion chemicals. Within industrial technologies, it seeks to invest in automation and process controls, handling and packaging equipment, industrial filtration and fluid handling, measurement, monitoring and testing, professional tools, and sensors and instrumentation. Within specialty chemicals and products, the firm seeks to invest in businesses that develop and manufacture highly differentiated chemicals and products including adhesives, coatings and sealants, catalysts and absorbents, cosmeceuticals, fine chemicals, flavors and fragrances, performance lubricants, polymers, plastics and composites, chemical dispensing and filtration equipment, professional and industrial trade consumables and tools, engineered solutions for HVAC, plumbing, and electrical installations, specified high performance materials for fire protection and oilfield applications. It may also invest in exceptional opportunities in building products. The firm seeks to invest in the United States and North America. The firm seeks to make investments ranging from $5 million to $25 million in securities. Its typical financing size is between $5 million and $75 million, target hold size is between $5 million and $45 million, and the firm is willing to backstop up to $55 million with an active network of co-investors. It seeks to invest in firms with minimum EBITDA between $3 million and $25 million. In addition to making direct investments, the firm allocates capital to syndicated first and second lien term loans in the upper middle market. It prefers to take a majority or minority stake. The firm has the flexibility to hold investments for very long periods in its portfolio companies. It may also invest through warrants. The firm prefers to take board participation in its portfolio companies. Capital Southwest Corporation was founded on April 19, 1961 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

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