Value
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.9 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
- ▸PEG: 1.53
CRVL · Why this verdict
Why CorVel (CRVL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a negative slope and falling volume accumulation, with a death-cross pattern in effect — and has missed earnings estimates in all four available reporting periods, making a near-term recovery difficult to justify on the evidence at hand.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Return on equity of 31% signals efficient capital deployment, yet the quality assessment notes the absence of a competitive moat — meaning these above-average returns carry structural erosion risk if competitive dynamics intensify over time. Quality breakdown | Over 12 months, ROE remaining above 25% while cash generation improves would signal that the returns are more durable than the moat assessment implies. | →Stable |
| CounterAn ROE of 31% sustained over time may itself be evidence of durable competitive advantages that are not yet reflected in the moat score; longevity of the return level would argue against the erosion thesis. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average's slope running at negative 6.5% over the past 30 days, volume is in distribution rather than accumulation, and a death-cross pattern is confirmed — together marking an entrenched, not incipient, downtrend. Momentum breakdown | If the downtrend reverses, price should close above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume trending upward for at least six consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterDeeply oversold conditions can precede sharp mean-reversion rallies; a single catalytic event could rapidly invalidate the technical picture before the trend officially reverses. | ||
The company has failed to meet analyst earnings estimates in all four recorded quarters, with an average negative surprise of roughly 17%, indicating persistent difficulty in clearing the bar set by the market. Earnings | The miss streak is resolved when EPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with a positive surprise percentage. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings data on record spans a narrow window; if current operations have improved materially in recent periods, the historical miss pattern may no longer reflect the business's present earnings trajectory. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.1, a level that weighs on financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk if operating conditions soften — a burden already flagged as a negative factor in the overall assessment. Bear case | Over 12 months, the leverage ratio should decline toward 3.0 or below for this pillar's concern to be substantially resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage can be sustainable if the business generates stable, recurring cash flows to service it; the current-ratio score suggests near-term liquidity is not immediately stressed, and the leverage level alone may not impair operations. | ||
Return on equity of 31% signals efficient capital deployment, yet the quality assessment notes the absence of a competitive moat — meaning these above-average returns carry structural erosion risk if competitive dynamics intensify over time.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, ROE remaining above 25% while cash generation improves would signal that the returns are more durable than the moat assessment implies.
CounterAn ROE of 31% sustained over time may itself be evidence of durable competitive advantages that are not yet reflected in the moat score; longevity of the return level would argue against the erosion thesis.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average's slope running at negative 6.5% over the past 30 days, volume is in distribution rather than accumulation, and a death-cross pattern is confirmed — together marking an entrenched, not incipient, downtrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If the downtrend reverses, price should close above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume trending upward for at least six consecutive weeks.
CounterDeeply oversold conditions can precede sharp mean-reversion rallies; a single catalytic event could rapidly invalidate the technical picture before the trend officially reverses.
The company has failed to meet analyst earnings estimates in all four recorded quarters, with an average negative surprise of roughly 17%, indicating persistent difficulty in clearing the bar set by the market.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak is resolved when EPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with a positive surprise percentage.
CounterThe earnings data on record spans a narrow window; if current operations have improved materially in recent periods, the historical miss pattern may no longer reflect the business's present earnings trajectory.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.1, a level that weighs on financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk if operating conditions soften — a burden already flagged as a negative factor in the overall assessment.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the leverage ratio should decline toward 3.0 or below for this pillar's concern to be substantially resolved.
CounterHigh leverage can be sustainable if the business generates stable, recurring cash flows to service it; the current-ratio score suggests near-term liquidity is not immediately stressed, and the leverage level alone may not impair operations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,538,834 (0.081% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 0.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
1.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.5>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.6, Momentum at 5.5, and Growth at 5.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 1.7, Technical at 1.9, and Peer rank at 2.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average's slope running at negative 6.5% over the past 30 days, volume is in distribution rather than accumulation, and a death-cross pattern is confirmed — together marking an entrenched, not incipient, downtrend.
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks with on-balance volume positive over the same period.
- P2The company has failed to meet analyst earnings estimates in all four recorded quarters, with an average negative surprise of roughly 17%, indicating persistent difficulty in clearing the bar set by the market.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.1, a level that weighs on financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk if operating conditions soften — a burden already flagged as a negative factor in the overall assessment.
Trip ifNet debt-to-equity ratio falls below 3.0 as reported in 2 consecutive filings.
- P4Return on equity of 31% signals efficient capital deployment, yet the quality assessment notes the absence of a competitive moat — meaning these above-average returns carry structural erosion risk if competitive dynamics intensify over time.
Trip ifROE sustains above 20% for 3 consecutive annual reporting periods, demonstrating return durability without a recognized moat.