Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
- ▸Attractively valued
CRAI · Why this verdict
Why CRA International,Inc. (CRAI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock trades at an attractively valued forward multiple of 15.3 times earnings with a price-to-growth ratio of 1.08 and roughly 45% upside to analyst consensus targets, but a confirmed price downtrend, a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9, and a market capitalization of $0.95 billion that falls below the minimum investable threshold collectively justify avoiding entry until quality metrics and the price trend both improve.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At 15.3 times forward earnings and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.08, the stock screens attractively valued, and analysts collectively see roughly 71% upside to their consensus target from current levels. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 18x over the next 12 months while earnings grow into the discount, sustaining the valuation case as a potential catalyst. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive valuation can persist or compress further when quality metrics are weak and the price is in a confirmed downtrend — a low multiple may reflect justified skepticism rather than a mispriced opportunity. | ||
With roughly 45% upside to the analyst consensus target and a risk/reward of approximately 6.5-to-1, the potential reward is substantial relative to the near-term downside if the stock re-rates toward fair value. Price targets | Price advances at least 20% from current $147.75 over the next 12 months, capturing a meaningful portion of the gap to consensus and validating the upside thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterThe death cross technical block represents a hard constraint for entry regardless of the upside potential; the high reward/risk ratio is theoretical until price and momentum confirm a base. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at roughly 3% per month — a confirmed downtrend that constitutes a hard block on new entry regardless of valuation. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least three consecutive weeks, signaling a trend reversal that would remove the entry block. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI is at 53 (neutral), suggesting early stabilization; if the price continues to recover, the trend block could resolve within a few months. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9 indicates broad-based weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality profile well below what is typically required for a durable investment. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score improves to above 6 for two consecutive reporting periods, confirming a genuine quality recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity scores 7.5 out of 10 and free cash flow quality scores 6.9 out of 10, suggesting that specific financial metrics are healthier than the aggregate Piotroski reading implies. | ||
At $0.95 billion, the market capitalization falls below the $1.0 billion minimum threshold for the investable universe, placing the stock outside consideration for standard institutional sizing regardless of other merits. Bear case | Market capitalization rises above $1.0 billion and is sustained for at least four consecutive weeks, meeting the minimum threshold and removing this structural exclusion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe gap between current market cap and the $1.0 billion floor is narrow — roughly 5% — meaning a modest price recovery would resolve this constraint quickly if other conditions improve simultaneously. | ||
At 15.3 times forward earnings and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.08, the stock screens attractively valued, and analysts collectively see roughly 71% upside to their consensus target from current levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 18x over the next 12 months while earnings grow into the discount, sustaining the valuation case as a potential catalyst.
CounterAttractive valuation can persist or compress further when quality metrics are weak and the price is in a confirmed downtrend — a low multiple may reflect justified skepticism rather than a mispriced opportunity.
With roughly 45% upside to the analyst consensus target and a risk/reward of approximately 6.5-to-1, the potential reward is substantial relative to the near-term downside if the stock re-rates toward fair value.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances at least 20% from current $147.75 over the next 12 months, capturing a meaningful portion of the gap to consensus and validating the upside thesis.
CounterThe death cross technical block represents a hard constraint for entry regardless of the upside potential; the high reward/risk ratio is theoretical until price and momentum confirm a base.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at roughly 3% per month — a confirmed downtrend that constitutes a hard block on new entry regardless of valuation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least three consecutive weeks, signaling a trend reversal that would remove the entry block.
CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI is at 53 (neutral), suggesting early stabilization; if the price continues to recover, the trend block could resolve within a few months.
A Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9 indicates broad-based weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality profile well below what is typically required for a durable investment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score improves to above 6 for two consecutive reporting periods, confirming a genuine quality recovery.
CounterReturn on equity scores 7.5 out of 10 and free cash flow quality scores 6.9 out of 10, suggesting that specific financial metrics are healthier than the aggregate Piotroski reading implies.
At $0.95 billion, the market capitalization falls below the $1.0 billion minimum threshold for the investable universe, placing the stock outside consideration for standard institutional sizing regardless of other merits.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Market capitalization rises above $1.0 billion and is sustained for at least four consecutive weeks, meeting the minimum threshold and removing this structural exclusion.
CounterThe gap between current market cap and the $1.0 billion floor is narrow — roughly 5% — meaning a modest price recovery would resolve this constraint quickly if other conditions improve simultaneously.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 74%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,358,614 (0.146% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 158.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $0.93B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.54
Upside
+48.3%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Sentiment at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Insider at 3.4, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At 15.3 times forward earnings and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.08, the stock screens attractively valued, and analysts collectively see roughly 71% upside to their consensus target from current levels.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 22x from the current 15.3x, eliminating the valuation discount.
- P2With roughly 45% upside to the analyst consensus target and a risk/reward of approximately 6.5-to-1, the potential reward is substantial relative to the near-term downside if the stock re-rates toward fair value.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines more than 20% from current levels, reducing implied upside below 25%.
- P3The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at roughly 3% per month — a confirmed downtrend that constitutes a hard block on new entry regardless of valuation.
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 55 for 3 consecutive weeks, confirming the downtrend has reversed.
- P4A Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9 indicates broad-based weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality profile well below what is typically required for a durable investment.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score improves above 6 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P5At $0.95 billion, the market capitalization falls below the $1.0 billion minimum threshold for the investable universe, placing the stock outside consideration for standard institutional sizing regardless of other merits.
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $1.0 billion and is sustained for at least 4 consecutive weeks.