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Columbia Financial, Inc. (CLBK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 90% exposure to New Jersey (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: multifamily and commercial real estate loans (50.9%).

Columbia Financial is the holding company for Columbia Bank, a New Jersey federal savings bank with 71 branches in 12 NJ counties serving commercial real estate and business borrowers. CRE and multifamily loans total $4.2B or 50.9% of the loan portfolio, with 89.9% in New... Read more

$19.04-0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#77 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $18.32Target $18.94(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$19.00-0.2%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 90% exposure to New Jersey (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: multifamily and commercial real estate loans (50.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Single-region cliff: 90% exposure to New Jersey (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: multifamily and commercial real estate loans (50.9%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey (89.9%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.6
P/E (Fwd)24.4
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth18.5%
Beta0.19
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV45%normal
Max Pain$3-86.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliomultifamily and commercial real estate loans51%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our multifamily and commercial real estate loan portfolios totaled $4.2 billion, or 50.9% of our total loan portfolio.'
  • HIGHGeographicNew Jersey90%
    10-K Item 1: 'New Jersey| | $| 3,769,561 | | | 89.9 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOW
    Thomas Splaine Jr., EVP and CFO (appointed Jan 28, 2026), formally designated as principal financial and accounting officer for SEC reporting. Administrative designation only.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Director Paul Van Ostenbridge notified intention to retire from the Company and Columbia Bank boards at the 2026 annual meeting. No disagreement with the Company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Dennis Gibney promoted to First Senior EVP and Chief Banking Officer effective Jan 28, 2026. Thomas Splaine Jr. (Chief Accounting Officer) appointed EVP and CFO as successor. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
6.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
1.6
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.38Resistance $19.33

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CLBK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 90% exposure to New Jersey (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: multifamily and commercial real estate loans (50.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $18.94 (-0.5%), stop $18.32 (−3.9%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CLBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.94 (-0.4% upside). Target $18.94 (-0.5%), stop $18.32 (−3.9%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $18.32.

What are the risks of investing in CLBK?

Single-region cliff: 90% exposure to New Jersey (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: multifamily and commercial real estate loans (50.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey (89.9%).

Is CLBK overvalued or undervalued?

Columbia Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 24.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CLBK?

7 analysts cover CLBK with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Columbia Financial, Inc. do?Columbia Financial is the holding company for Columbia Bank, a New Jersey federal savings bank with 71 branches in 12...

Columbia Financial is the holding company for Columbia Bank, a New Jersey federal savings bank with 71 branches in 12 NJ counties serving commercial real estate and business borrowers. CRE and multifamily loans total $4.2B or 50.9% of the loan portfolio, with 89.9% in New Jersey. A merger agreement with Northfield Bancorp was entered in January 2026.

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