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City Holding Company (CHCO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.07 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio.

City Holding Company is a financial holding company headquartered in Charleston, West Virginia, operating City National Bank with 96 branches in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and southeastern Ohio. Revenue is generated through community banking, wealth and investment... Read more

$122.07+5.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#131 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $115.16Target $126.57(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$131.40+7.6%5 analysts
$126.57our TP
$122.07price
$131.40mean
$135

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.07 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn41.3%
ROE17.0%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta0.48
Dividend2.80%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicWest Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's business is concentrated in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.4
Revenue Growth
3.9
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.72Resistance $129.15

Price Targets

$115
$127
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.2% upside)
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.07 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $115.16. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $126.57 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $115.16. Stop-loss: $115.16.

What are the risks of investing in CHCO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia and southeastern Ohio; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is CHCO overvalued or undervalued?

City Holding Company trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHCO?

10 analysts cover CHCO with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $131.

What does City Holding Company do?City Holding Company is a financial holding company headquartered in Charleston, West Virginia, operating City National...

City Holding Company is a financial holding company headquartered in Charleston, West Virginia, operating City National Bank with 96 branches in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and southeastern Ohio. Revenue is generated through community banking, wealth and investment management, mortgage banking, and insurance services.

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