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Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $145.26 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans (80.9%).

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company with $53.0 billion in total assets, operating Frost Bank through approximately 204 financial centers across Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and other Texas markets. Revenue is generated primarily from... Read more

$145.26-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#120 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $139.13Target $142.99(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$146.67+1.0%15 analysts
$142.99our TP
$145.26price
$146.67mean
$120
$161

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $145.26 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans (80.9%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans (80.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.8% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn29.6%
ROE15.3%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.61
Dividend2.80%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$120-17.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans81%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 80.9% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate mortgage loans47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate mortgage loans comprised approximately 47.1% of our loan portfolio'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-30Item 5.02LOW
    Dr. Chris Avery retiring from Board at 2026 Annual Meeting (April 29, 2026); Marsha M. Shields and Jeffrey M. Rummel elected as new independent directors effective January 28, 2026. Board expanded from 13 to 15 members.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $136.76Resistance $145.91

Price Targets

$139
$143
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CFR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $145.26 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans (80.9%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $139.13. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CFR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $142.99 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $139.13. Stop-loss: $139.13.

What are the risks of investing in CFR?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans (80.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away).

Is CFR overvalued or undervalued?

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CFR?

19 analysts cover CFR with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. do?Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company with $53.0 billion in total assets, operating Frost...

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company with $53.0 billion in total assets, operating Frost Bank through approximately 204 financial centers across Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and other Texas markets. Revenue is generated primarily from commercial and consumer loans, deposits, and wealth management services.

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