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Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (all operations); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits (~52% of total deposits) (52.0%).

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company providing commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and insurance through Frost Bank's ~204 branches exclusively across Texas (Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Gulf Coast, Houston, Permian Basin, San... Read more

$138.23+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#90 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 2.88%)Payout38.95%sustainable
Stop $131.81Target $144.38(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$150.53+8.9%15 analysts
$144.38our TP
$138.23price
$150.53mean
$130
$165

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (all operations); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits (~52% of total deposits) (52.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (all operations)
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits (~52% of total deposits) (52.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.0%
ROE15.5%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.58
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas (all operations)
    10-K Item 1: 'primarily engaged in the business of commercial and consumer banking through approximately 204 financial centers across Texas'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate mortgage loans (~47.1% of loan portfolio)47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate mortgage loans comprised approximately 47.1% of our loan portfolio'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliouninsured deposits (~52% of total deposits)52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 52% of our deposits were uninsured and we rely on these deposits for liquidity'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $133.35Resistance $147.33

Price Targets

$132
$144
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CFR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (all operations); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits (~52% of total deposits) (52.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $144.38 (+4.4%), stop $131.81 (−4.9%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CFR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $144.38 (+4.4% upside). Target $144.38 (+4.4%), stop $131.81 (−4.9%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $131.81.

What are the risks of investing in CFR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (all operations); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits (~52% of total deposits) (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CFR overvalued or undervalued?

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CFR?

19 analysts cover CFR with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. do?Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company providing commercial and consumer banking, wealth...

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company providing commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and insurance through Frost Bank's ~204 branches exclusively across Texas (Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Gulf Coast, Houston, Permian Basin, San Antonio). Total assets of $53.0B at Dec 31, 2025; total deposits of $43.3B.

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