Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.82
CCEP · Why this verdict
Why Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock is already trading above the analyst consensus ceiling with negative implied upside, and four consecutive earnings misses averaging -40% underscore a persistent gap between market expectations and actual delivery; the sole offsetting factor is strong price momentum — a golden cross with rising on-balance volume and RSI at 68 — which may sustain the current price but provides no fundamental support for a new position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden cross formation with the price above all key moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and RSI at 68 present a clear bullish technical picture that has sustained the stock at elevated levels despite fundamental headwinds. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains a position above its 200-day moving average with RSI staying between 50 and 75 over the next 6 months, confirming the technical uptrend remains intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.54 indicates options market participants are buying downside protection despite the bullish price action, a divergence that can precede a momentum reversal when the technical support weakens. | ||
The stock is currently trading above the analyst consensus price target, implying negative headroom; at a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.31-to-1, the current price offers no margin of safety and the entry geometry is unfavorable. Price targets | Analyst consensus upgrades bring the price target above $114 — implying at least 15% upside from current levels — or the stock pulls back to create a more favorable entry below the consensus target. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks can sustain prices above analyst consensus targets for extended periods if earnings revisions follow, and a continuation of positive momentum may eventually prompt analyst upgrades that reset the ceiling higher. | ||
Four consecutive earnings misses averaging a -40% negative surprise indicate a sustained pattern of falling short of market expectations, which undermines management credibility and creates downside risk if the delivery shortfall continues. Earnings | The company reports two consecutive quarterly earnings beats of at least 5% positive surprise versus consensus, demonstrating a genuine improvement in execution. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong price momentum may signal that investors are looking past the historical miss record and pricing in future improvement; a prolonged period of negative surprises can also set a lower bar that is easier to clear going forward. | ||
A put/call ratio of 1.54 indicates meaningful demand for downside protection among options participants, representing a divergence from the bullish price trend that warrants caution for new entrants. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio compresses below 0.8 for 2 consecutive observation periods, signaling that hedging demand has normalized and the divergence from price momentum has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio alongside a rising stock price can reflect covered-call writing against long positions rather than outright bearish bets, limiting the informational content of the ratio in isolation. | ||
A golden cross formation with the price above all key moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and RSI at 68 present a clear bullish technical picture that has sustained the stock at elevated levels despite fundamental headwinds.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains a position above its 200-day moving average with RSI staying between 50 and 75 over the next 6 months, confirming the technical uptrend remains intact.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.54 indicates options market participants are buying downside protection despite the bullish price action, a divergence that can precede a momentum reversal when the technical support weakens.
The stock is currently trading above the analyst consensus price target, implying negative headroom; at a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.31-to-1, the current price offers no margin of safety and the entry geometry is unfavorable.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus upgrades bring the price target above $114 — implying at least 15% upside from current levels — or the stock pulls back to create a more favorable entry below the consensus target.
CounterStocks can sustain prices above analyst consensus targets for extended periods if earnings revisions follow, and a continuation of positive momentum may eventually prompt analyst upgrades that reset the ceiling higher.
Four consecutive earnings misses averaging a -40% negative surprise indicate a sustained pattern of falling short of market expectations, which undermines management credibility and creates downside risk if the delivery shortfall continues.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company reports two consecutive quarterly earnings beats of at least 5% positive surprise versus consensus, demonstrating a genuine improvement in execution.
CounterStrong price momentum may signal that investors are looking past the historical miss record and pricing in future improvement; a prolonged period of negative surprises can also set a lower bar that is easier to clear going forward.
A put/call ratio of 1.54 indicates meaningful demand for downside protection among options participants, representing a divergence from the bullish price trend that warrants caution for new entrants.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio compresses below 0.8 for 2 consecutive observation periods, signaling that hedging demand has normalized and the divergence from price momentum has resolved.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio alongside a rising stock price can reflect covered-call writing against long positions rather than outright bearish bets, limiting the informational content of the ratio in isolation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.36
- ▸Above max pain $75
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.83
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.83 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.4, Growth at 6.2, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.8, Catalyst at 3.0, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A golden cross formation with the price above all key moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and RSI at 68 present a clear bullish technical picture that has sustained the stock at elevated levels despite fundamental headwinds.
Trip ifStock falls below its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks with RSI dropping below 45.
- P2The stock is currently trading above the analyst consensus price target, implying negative headroom; at a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.31-to-1, the current price offers no margin of safety and the entry geometry is unfavorable.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $114, implying more than 15% upside from the current level.
- P3Four consecutive earnings misses averaging a -40% negative surprise indicate a sustained pattern of falling short of market expectations, which undermines management credibility and creates downside risk if the delivery shortfall continues.
Trip ifCompany reports 2 consecutive quarterly earnings beats exceeding 5% positive surprise versus consensus.
- P4A put/call ratio of 1.54 indicates meaningful demand for downside protection among options participants, representing a divergence from the bullish price trend that warrants caution for new entrants.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 0.8 for 2 consecutive observation periods.