Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.27
CBOE · Why this verdict
Why Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cboe operates a wide-moat exchange franchise with 26% net margins, a 25% return on equity, and four consecutive earnings beats — while the stock's 23.9% potential return to resistance and a 3.4-to-1 favorable risk/reward represent a materially attractive setup for a patient investor willing to look through a near-term momentum pullback that has pushed RSI to oversold territory.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Options and futures segments account for approximately 68% of revenues, creating meaningful dependency on the structural health of derivatives trading. A sustained decline in trading volumes or adverse regulatory action on these products would have an outsized effect on the revenue base. Bear case | Non-options and non-futures revenue grows to represent more than 40% of total revenue over 3 years, reducing single-product dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterDerivatives exchanges benefit from deep network effects and regulatory moats that make revenue displacement slow; the concentrated product mix is also the source of the franchise's high margins and consistent earnings growth, making diversification a double-edged outcome. | ||
The business has earned recognition as a wide economic moat franchise with a 25% return on equity, 26% net margins, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9. The combination of durable competitive advantages and consistent returns marks this as a high-quality franchise with compounding characteristics. Quality breakdown | Return on equity sustains above 20% and net margin holds above 22% for 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterOptions and futures segments account for 68% of revenues; any structural shift in how market participants manage risk or regulatory changes affecting those products could erode trading volumes and compress margins beyond what the current moat assessment anticipates. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 5%. The most recent quarter delivered $3.70 against a $3.37 estimate — a 9.7% beat — confirming the business is consistently outperforming analyst models. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average quarterly positive surprise above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterConsensus estimates may have drifted higher in response to the four-quarter beat streak, raising the bar for future outperformance; the most recent 9.7% beat was the largest in the window, which can indicate the streak is pulling expectations forward rather than reflecting ongoing delivery. | ||
The stock sits 23.9% below its technical resistance target with a risk/reward of approximately 3.4-to-1 in your favor, clearing the asymmetry threshold. This combination of meaningful potential return and disciplined downside geometry is attractive for a quality business experiencing a near-term pullback. Price targets | Price advances toward the resistance target of approximately $363 within 12 months as momentum recovers and fundamental quality continues to compound. | →Stable |
| CounterA favorable reward-to-risk ratio can persist for months without triggering if the price catalyst never materializes; with momentum in oversold territory and technical signals mixed, the path to the resistance target may be longer and more volatile than the geometry implies. | ||
The momentum gate failed its minimum threshold at 3.3, RSI has reached oversold levels near 25, and on-balance volume is falling. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average, suggesting this is a near-term pressure within a longer-term uptrend rather than a structural trend break. Engine gate (failed) | RSI recovers above 40 and on-balance volume turns positive within 3 months as the oversold condition exhausts itself. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI near 25 alongside mixed technical signals can mark the beginning of a deeper correction rather than a bounce point; a sustained close below the 200-day moving average would undermine the pullback-in-uptrend narrative and require re-evaluation of the technical thesis. | ||
Options and futures segments account for approximately 68% of revenues, creating meaningful dependency on the structural health of derivatives trading. A sustained decline in trading volumes or adverse regulatory action on these products would have an outsized effect on the revenue base.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-options and non-futures revenue grows to represent more than 40% of total revenue over 3 years, reducing single-product dependency.
CounterDerivatives exchanges benefit from deep network effects and regulatory moats that make revenue displacement slow; the concentrated product mix is also the source of the franchise's high margins and consistent earnings growth, making diversification a double-edged outcome.
The business has earned recognition as a wide economic moat franchise with a 25% return on equity, 26% net margins, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9. The combination of durable competitive advantages and consistent returns marks this as a high-quality franchise with compounding characteristics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity sustains above 20% and net margin holds above 22% for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterOptions and futures segments account for 68% of revenues; any structural shift in how market participants manage risk or regulatory changes affecting those products could erode trading volumes and compress margins beyond what the current moat assessment anticipates.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 5%. The most recent quarter delivered $3.70 against a $3.37 estimate — a 9.7% beat — confirming the business is consistently outperforming analyst models.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average quarterly positive surprise above 3%.
CounterConsensus estimates may have drifted higher in response to the four-quarter beat streak, raising the bar for future outperformance; the most recent 9.7% beat was the largest in the window, which can indicate the streak is pulling expectations forward rather than reflecting ongoing delivery.
The stock sits 23.9% below its technical resistance target with a risk/reward of approximately 3.4-to-1 in your favor, clearing the asymmetry threshold. This combination of meaningful potential return and disciplined downside geometry is attractive for a quality business experiencing a near-term pullback.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward the resistance target of approximately $363 within 12 months as momentum recovers and fundamental quality continues to compound.
CounterA favorable reward-to-risk ratio can persist for months without triggering if the price catalyst never materializes; with momentum in oversold territory and technical signals mixed, the path to the resistance target may be longer and more volatile than the geometry implies.
The momentum gate failed its minimum threshold at 3.3, RSI has reached oversold levels near 25, and on-balance volume is falling. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average, suggesting this is a near-term pressure within a longer-term uptrend rather than a structural trend break.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and on-balance volume turns positive within 3 months as the oversold condition exhausts itself.
CounterRSI near 25 alongside mixed technical signals can mark the beginning of a deeper correction rather than a bounce point; a sustained close below the 200-day moving average would undermine the pullback-in-uptrend narrative and require re-evaluation of the technical thesis.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.4 |
| ROA | 7.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=5)
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $437,944 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 115.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.12
Upside
+12.2%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (7.9) with weak momentum (3.1)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Quality at 7.9; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.9, Growth at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Peer rank at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business has earned recognition as a wide economic moat franchise with a 25% return on equity, 26% net margins, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9. The combination of durable competitive advantages and consistent returns marks this as a high-quality franchise with compounding characteristics.
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 5%. The most recent quarter delivered $3.70 against a $3.37 estimate — a 9.7% beat — confirming the business is consistently outperforming analyst models.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in any 1 of the next 2 earnings reports.
- P3The stock sits 23.9% below its technical resistance target with a risk/reward of approximately 3.4-to-1 in your favor, clearing the asymmetry threshold. This combination of meaningful potential return and disciplined downside geometry is attractive for a quality business experiencing a near-term pullback.
Trip ifStock closes below $249 (more than 15% below current price) for 3 consecutive sessions, indicating the favorable risk/reward setup has broken down.
- P4The momentum gate failed its minimum threshold at 3.3, RSI has reached oversold levels near 25, and on-balance volume is falling. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average, suggesting this is a near-term pressure within a longer-term uptrend rather than a structural trend break.
Trip ifRSI recovers above 45 and on-balance volume turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Options and futures segments account for approximately 68% of revenues, creating meaningful dependency on the structural health of derivatives trading. A sustained decline in trading volumes or adverse regulatory action on these products would have an outsized effect on the revenue base.
Trip ifNon-options and non-futures revenue exceeds 40% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.