Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.27
BSY · Why this verdict
Why Bentley Systems (BSY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality infrastructure-software franchise with a wide economic moat, 148% free cash flow conversion, and rising earnings estimates is caught in a confirmed technical downtrend following a death cross — the quality and fundamental case is compelling at 29.4% upside to the analyst target, but entry is premature until momentum conditions clear. Geographic concentration of 59% outside the U.S. adds a risk layer that the fundamentals alone cannot fully offset.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 59% of revenue generated outside the U.S., the business carries elevated geographic concentration that introduces currency, regulatory, and demand-mix exposures not present in more domestically focused peers — a structural risk that is flagged as a high-severity concentration item. Bear case | International revenue share falls below 50% of total revenue, or the company demonstrates stable margins and earnings through 4 consecutive quarters of meaningful foreign-exchange or regional-demand stress. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic diversification can also be a source of growth optionality — if demand in key international markets accelerates, the wide moat may allow pricing power that partially offsets currency and regulatory headwinds and makes the concentration a return tailwind rather than a risk. | ||
Free cash flow converts at 148% of reported net income — meaning cash generation exceeds accounting profits — paired with 18% operating margins, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score of 41, establishing a high-quality franchise that has compounded returns through multiple cycles. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income stays above 100% and operating margins remain above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth scores softly relative to the quality of the franchise, and a forward price-to-earnings of 19.3x screens as the more expensive end relative to peers — the moat may already be priced in without a near-term growth re-acceleration to justify the multiple. | ||
Price is in a confirmed downtrend — below all moving averages with the 30-day slope declining 7.8%, volume distribution falling, and a death cross triggering a hard block — creating a falling-knife technical environment that makes new entry premature regardless of the fundamental quality. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold, the death cross resolves, and falling OBV reverses to accumulation within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend in a high-quality business with rising earnings estimates and 3 of the last 4 quarters as beats can mark an opportunity before technical indicators confirm the turn, as the fundamental recovery may lead the price reversal. | ||
Earnings estimates are trending upward and the company has beaten expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters — delivering beats in the most recent two periods — while analysts embed 49% upside into their targets, providing a durable fundamental anchor against the technical weakness. Bull case | Earnings estimates continue to rise and the beat streak extends to 5 consecutive quarters within 12 months, while the price closes at least 15% of the gap to the analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterA high short interest of 11% and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.33 signal significant bearish market conviction that can persist even when fundamentals improve, if macro conditions or sector dynamics continue to work against the name. | ||
With 59% of revenue generated outside the U.S., the business carries elevated geographic concentration that introduces currency, regulatory, and demand-mix exposures not present in more domestically focused peers — a structural risk that is flagged as a high-severity concentration item.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue share falls below 50% of total revenue, or the company demonstrates stable margins and earnings through 4 consecutive quarters of meaningful foreign-exchange or regional-demand stress.
CounterGeographic diversification can also be a source of growth optionality — if demand in key international markets accelerates, the wide moat may allow pricing power that partially offsets currency and regulatory headwinds and makes the concentration a return tailwind rather than a risk.
Free cash flow converts at 148% of reported net income — meaning cash generation exceeds accounting profits — paired with 18% operating margins, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score of 41, establishing a high-quality franchise that has compounded returns through multiple cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income stays above 100% and operating margins remain above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters within 12 months.
CounterRevenue growth scores softly relative to the quality of the franchise, and a forward price-to-earnings of 19.3x screens as the more expensive end relative to peers — the moat may already be priced in without a near-term growth re-acceleration to justify the multiple.
Price is in a confirmed downtrend — below all moving averages with the 30-day slope declining 7.8%, volume distribution falling, and a death cross triggering a hard block — creating a falling-knife technical environment that makes new entry premature regardless of the fundamental quality.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold, the death cross resolves, and falling OBV reverses to accumulation within 6 months.
CounterA confirmed downtrend in a high-quality business with rising earnings estimates and 3 of the last 4 quarters as beats can mark an opportunity before technical indicators confirm the turn, as the fundamental recovery may lead the price reversal.
Earnings estimates are trending upward and the company has beaten expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters — delivering beats in the most recent two periods — while analysts embed 49% upside into their targets, providing a durable fundamental anchor against the technical weakness.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Earnings estimates continue to rise and the beat streak extends to 5 consecutive quarters within 12 months, while the price closes at least 15% of the gap to the analyst target.
CounterA high short interest of 11% and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.33 signal significant bearish market conviction that can persist even when fundamentals improve, if macro conditions or sector dynamics continue to work against the name.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.1 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.1 |
| Current ratio | 2.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 148% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.36 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 57%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 1.7 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Above max pain $18
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 98.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.92
Upside
+41.0%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 12, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (1.0)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Quality at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free cash flow converts at 148% of reported net income — meaning cash generation exceeds accounting profits — paired with 18% operating margins, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score of 41, establishing a high-quality franchise that has compounded returns through multiple cycles.
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 13% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price is in a confirmed downtrend — below all moving averages with the 30-day slope declining 7.8%, volume distribution falling, and a death cross triggering a hard block — creating a falling-knife technical environment that makes new entry premature regardless of the fundamental quality.
Trip ifPrice remains more than 15% below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive months without any upward recovery.
- P3With 59% of revenue generated outside the U.S., the business carries elevated geographic concentration that introduces currency, regulatory, and demand-mix exposures not present in more domestically focused peers — a structural risk that is flagged as a high-severity concentration item.
Trip ifInternational revenue share rises above 65% of total revenue for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P4Earnings estimates are trending upward and the company has beaten expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters — delivering beats in the most recent two periods — while analysts embed 49% upside into their targets, providing a durable fundamental anchor against the technical weakness.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.