Should you buy Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New (BRK-B)?
Updated
BRK-B at $483.62 has attractive value (PEG 0.19, Forward P/E 22.7x), BULLISH insider signal (20 buys, 0 sells), momentum 6.5 in RECOVERY setup, and 3/4 beats — but V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE failing with TP $479.63 BELOW spot, V8 target reached (-8.5% upside) produce AVOID; action_note 'Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.2 (Forward P/E 22.7x, PEG 0.19, value notes 'Attractively valued') with pe component 8.1, ps component 8.4 — cheap relative to forward earnings power. Bull case (item 2) | Value subscore stays above 7.0 with Forward P/E below 25x over next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterBRK's reported PE is depressed by mark-to-market gains in equity portfolio; underlying operating earnings PE is closer to 25-30x — the 'attractively valued' label may be GAAP noise. | ||
Insider signal BULLISH with 20 buys / 0 sells over 90 days and net +557 shares (last 2026-05-22) — uniquely positive insider activity across the universe, suggesting board-level conviction at current levels. Insider transaction read | Buy_count stays above 10 and sell_count remains at 0 on the next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterBRK insider 'buys' may include Buffett/Munger estate management at trivial size; without dollar value (net_value_90d null) the signal magnitude is unscored. | ||
V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -8.5 vs downside_pct 5.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached' — TP $479.63 is $4 BELOW $483.62 spot with risk_reward -0.3. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit advances above $530 (10%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry above 1.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterBRK suffers from light analyst coverage (sentiment notes 'Light analyst coverage (3.0)'); take_profit may not adjust quickly because few analysts re-rate. | ||
Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.2 (Forward P/E 22.7x, PEG 0.19, value notes 'Attractively valued') with pe component 8.1, ps component 8.4 — cheap relative to forward earnings power.
→stable- Expectation
- Value subscore stays above 7.0 with Forward P/E below 25x over next 2 refreshes.
CounterBRK's reported PE is depressed by mark-to-market gains in equity portfolio; underlying operating earnings PE is closer to 25-30x — the 'attractively valued' label may be GAAP noise.
Insider signal BULLISH with 20 buys / 0 sells over 90 days and net +557 shares (last 2026-05-22) — uniquely positive insider activity across the universe, suggesting board-level conviction at current levels.
→stable- Expectation
- Buy_count stays above 10 and sell_count remains at 0 on the next refresh.
CounterBRK insider 'buys' may include Buffett/Munger estate management at trivial size; without dollar value (net_value_90d null) the signal magnitude is unscored.
V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -8.5 vs downside_pct 5.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached' — TP $479.63 is $4 BELOW $483.62 spot with risk_reward -0.3.
→stable- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $530 (10%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry above 1.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterBRK suffers from light analyst coverage (sentiment notes 'Light analyst coverage (3.0)'); take_profit may not adjust quickly because few analysts re-rate.
▸ Show 2 more pillars (SSR-indexed, visually truncated)▾ Show fewer
Earnings.beat_count 3 with Q4 2025 MISS of -8.48% and avg_surprise_pct 1.85% — insurance results are inherently volatile from underwriting and float marks; catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' downplays the volatility.
→stable- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 3+/4 with no MISS exceeding -10% by the 2026-08-01 print.
CounterBRK earnings are dominated by mark-to-market on $300B+ equity portfolio; missing 8% on insurance accounting noise is meaningless without context on portfolio gains.
Bear_case 'Below 200-day MA' with momentum notes 'Below 200-MA, MA slope flat' and V9 setup_type RECOVERY (MACD improving, RSI 69) — technical inflection at the start, not confirmed.
→stable- Expectation
- Price reclaims 200-day MA with ma_position component rising above 7.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterRSI 69 + MACD 10/10 + OBV 10/10 are early-recovery template signals; the 'below 200-MA' tag lags the inflection by ~30 days and may invert before the next refresh.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 5 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.2 (Forward P/E 22.7x, PEG 0.19, value notes 'Attractively valued') with pe component 8.1, ps component 8.4 — cheap relative to forward earnings power.
Trip ifValue subscore falls below 6.0 with Forward P/E above 28x.
- P2Insider signal BULLISH with 20 buys / 0 sells over 90 days and net +557 shares (last 2026-05-22) — uniquely positive insider activity across the universe, suggesting board-level conviction at current levels.
Trip ifInsider signal flips to NEUTRAL or BEARISH with sell_count >= 5.
- P3V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -8.5 vs downside_pct 5.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached' — TP $479.63 is $4 BELOW $483.62 spot with risk_reward -0.3.
Trip ifAsymmetry_ratio stays below -1.0 for 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P4Earnings.beat_count 3 with Q4 2025 MISS of -8.48% and avg_surprise_pct 1.85% — insurance results are inherently volatile from underwriting and float marks; catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' downplays the volatility.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 1/4 with avg_surprise_pct below -5%.
- P5Bear_case 'Below 200-day MA' with momentum notes 'Below 200-MA, MA slope flat' and V9 setup_type RECOVERY (MACD improving, RSI 69) — technical inflection at the start, not confirmed.
Trip ifPrice stays below 200-day MA for 3 consecutive refreshes with MA slope still negative.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New (BRK-B) is HOLD_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.9/10 at $474.34. None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) cleared their gates — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals rather than directional conviction.
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (3/4); Attractive valuation. On the bear side: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (-6.8% upside), V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE.
The engine is not issuing fresh-money entry targets at the current verdict. The technical entry zone is around — with a technical stop near $461.62 for existing positions. Asymmetric R:R is 0.41, below the threshold (≥2.0) at which the engine would actively flag fresh capital. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
HOLD flips toward BUY_WAIT if momentum at 3.0 vs threshold 4.5 clears AND a co-confirming gate triggers. HOLD flips toward SELL if any of the currently-passing gates drop below threshold OR three or more dimensions fall below 4 simultaneously.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates BRK-B — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- ▸Attractive valuation
Bear case
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- ▸Negative momentum